Zoomlion(SZ:000157) Guotou Securities·2025-03-25 06:06Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy-A" with a 6-month target price of 9.22 CNY, compared to the current stock price of 8.02 CNY [3][9]. Core Views - The company's performance in 2024 met expectations, with total revenue of 45.478 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 3.39%, and a net profit of 3.52 billion CNY, a slight increase of 0.41% [1]. - The company is expected to see a recovery in profits in 2025, driven by improved domestic demand and continued growth in international markets and emerging businesses [9][10]. - The company has a strong focus on cash dividends and share buyback policies, with a planned dividend of 2.603 billion CNY for 2024, representing a dividend payout ratio of 73.95% [9]. Revenue and Profitability - The core business segments, including cranes and concrete machinery, generated revenues of 14.786 billion CNY and 8.013 billion CNY, respectively, with year-on-year declines of 23.35% and 6.8% [2]. - Emerging businesses, such as aerial work, earthmoving, and agricultural machinery, showed significant growth, with revenues of 6.833 billion CNY, 6.671 billion CNY, and 4.65 billion CNY, reflecting year-on-year increases of 19.74%, 0.34%, and 122.29% [2]. - The company's gross margin and net margin improved to 28.17% and 8.81%, respectively, with year-on-year increases of 0.63 percentage points and 0.8 percentage points [3]. Internationalization and Market Position - Domestic and overseas revenues were 22.098 billion CNY and 23.38 billion CNY, respectively, with year-on-year changes of -24.24% and +30.58%, marking a historical milestone where overseas revenue accounted for over 50% of total revenue [2]. - The company has established a strong market position in the domestic market for its main products and is rapidly expanding its overseas business, with export revenue growing by over 35% [2]. Financial Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 53.03 billion CNY, 62.52 billion CNY, and 73.79 billion CNY for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with growth rates of 16.6%, 17.9%, and 18% [9][11]. - Net profits are expected to reach 4.9 billion CNY, 6.12 billion CNY, and 7.6 billion CNY for the same years, with growth rates of 39.2%, 24.8%, and 24.2% [9][11].