PDD(US:PDD) Guoxin Securities·2025-03-25 03:25Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" [5] Core Views - The company's Q4 revenue was 110.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24%, with advertising revenue at 57 billion yuan (up 17% YoY) and payment channel revenue at 53.6 billion yuan (up 33% YoY). However, revenue growth was below expectations due to ongoing investments in platform ecosystem development [1][8] - The non-GAAP net profit for the quarter was 29.9 billion yuan, a 14% increase YoY, with a non-GAAP net profit margin of 25%. The gross profit margin was 57%, down 4 percentage points YoY, primarily due to the company covering full shipping costs for orders in the western regions and a decline in the proportion of high-margin commissions [2][9] - The company is actively addressing overseas uncertainties, with its TEMU platform now operating in over 60 countries, including the US and Germany. The company plans to introduce a third-party platform model to mitigate tariff risks and enhance supply diversity [2][9] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 480.3 billion yuan, 593.5 billion yuan, and 676.6 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 22%, 24%, and 14%. Non-GAAP net profit projections for the same years are 130.2 billion yuan, 163.2 billion yuan, and 185.7 billion yuan, with growth rates of 7%, 25%, and 14% [3][12] - The current price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is projected to be 10x, 8x, and 7x for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [3][12]