SHANGHAI ENERGY(SH:600508) KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2025-03-25 02:35Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2][4] Core Views - The company's performance in 2024 was impacted by a decline in coal prices, leading to a 13.6% year-on-year decrease in revenue to 9.49 billion yuan and a 26.2% drop in net profit to 720 million yuan [4][5] - The report emphasizes the potential for valuation recovery due to the company's significant price-to-book (PB) discount and the possibility of increased dividends, with a current PB of 0.7 [6][4] - Future profit forecasts have been adjusted downward for 2025 and 2026, with expected net profits of 530 million yuan and 630 million yuan respectively, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 26.6% and a subsequent recovery in 2026 [4][7] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved an operating revenue of 9.49 billion yuan, down 13.6% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 720 million yuan, down 26.2% [4][7] - The coal production for 2024 was 8.58 million tons, an increase of 6.9% year-on-year, while the sales volume of commercial coal decreased by 2.7% to 6.32 million tons [5][6] - The average selling price of commercial coal in 2024 was 995.9 yuan per ton, reflecting an 8.5% decrease year-on-year [5][6] Future Outlook - The company is expected to see a gradual recovery in profits, with projected net profits of 530 million yuan in 2025, 630 million yuan in 2026, and 700 million yuan in 2027, indicating a potential growth trajectory [4][7] - The report highlights the company's integrated coal and power operations, which may help mitigate the impact of coal price fluctuations [6][5] - The company plans to maintain a dividend payout ratio of around 40.4%, with expectations for further increases in the future [6][4]