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煤炭行业周报:北港库存加速去化,焦炭第三轮提涨落地-20250804
Datong Securities· 2025-08-04 12:29
证券研究报告——煤炭行业周报 北港库存加速去化,焦炭第三轮提涨落地 【2025.7.28-2025.8.3】 行业评级:看好 核心观点 发布日期:2025.8.4 煤炭行情走势图 数据来源:Wind 大同证券 大同证券研究中心 分析师:刘永芳 执业证书编号:S0770524100001 liuyongfang@dtsbc.com.cn 西世贸中心 A 座 F12、F13 网址:http://www.dtsbc.com.cn 风险提示 终端需求大幅回落,板块轮动加快,板块突发利空。 请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 1 北港库存加速去化,动力煤价继续上涨。在暴雨、台风以及能 源局要求煤矿超产自查数据上报的影响下,煤炭供给受到约 束,叠加迎峰度夏高温天增加,有望推动煤格继续上行。 焦炭第三轮提涨落地,焦煤价格继续上涨。山西超产核查进入 数据上报阶段,叠加蒙煤通关恢复缓慢,供应收缩延续,但钢 厂盈利水平尚可且仍在补库,预计焦煤价格将继续上行。 权益市场以跌为主,煤炭板块大幅跑输指数。政治局会议提出 "宏观政策持续发力、适时加力",中美贸易谈判延长关税展 期 90 天,但在稀土出口管制、芯片封锁等核心矛盾未解等众 多因素作 ...
供需驱动煤价回升,关注板块回调配置机遇
Xinda Securities· 2025-08-03 08:51
行业研究-周报 供需驱动煤价回升,关注板块回调配置机遇 [Table_ReportTime] 2025 年 8 月 3 日 证券研究报告 [Table_ReportType] 行业周报 | [Table_StockAndRank] 煤炭开采 | | | --- | --- | | 投资评级 | 看好 | | 上次评级 | 看好 | 高升:煤炭钢铁行业首席分析师 执业编号:S1500524100002 邮箱:gaosheng@cindasc.com 李睿:煤炭钢铁行业分析师 执业编号:S1500525040002 邮箱:lirui@cindasc.com 刘波: 煤炭钢铁行业分析师 执业编号:S1500525070001 邮箱:liubo1@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDASECURITIESCO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲 127 号 金隅大厦 B 座 邮编:100031 [Table_Title] 供需驱动煤价回升,关注板块回调配置机遇 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 8 月 3 日 本期内容提要: [Table_Summary] 请阅读最后一页免责声明 ...
政策定调遏制超产,边际收紧支撑煤价
Xinda Securities· 2025-07-27 12:29
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal mining industry is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The current phase is seen as the beginning of a new upward cycle in the coal economy, supported by both fundamental and policy factors, making it an opportune time to invest in the coal sector [11][12] - The report highlights a tightening supply side due to government policies aimed at curbing overproduction, which is expected to support a rebound in coal prices [3][11] - The underlying investment logic of coal capacity shortages remains unchanged, with a balanced short-term supply-demand situation and a medium to long-term gap still anticipated [11][12] Summary by Sections Coal Price Tracking - As of July 26, the market price for Qinhuangdao port thermal coal (Q5500) is 645 CNY/ton, an increase of 11 CNY/ton week-on-week [30] - The price for coking coal at Jing Tang port is reported at 1650 CNY/ton, up 230 CNY/ton week-on-week [32] Supply and Demand Tracking - The capacity utilization rate for sample thermal coal mines is 94%, down 0.6 percentage points week-on-week, while the utilization rate for coking coal mines is 86.9%, up 0.8 percentage points [11][42] - Daily coal consumption in inland provinces has decreased by 51,000 tons/day (-13.04%) and in coastal provinces by 19,600 tons/day (-8.1%) [11][42] Inventory Situation - Coal inventory in coastal provinces increased by 429,000 tons week-on-week, while inland provinces saw a slight increase of 85,000 tons [11] Company Performance - The coal sector has shown strong performance, with the coal mining sector rising by 8.00% this week, outperforming the broader market [15][17] - Key companies to focus on include China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and China Coal Energy, which are noted for their stable operations and solid performance [12][13]
供给收缩预期升温,煤价反弹支撑强劲
ZHONGTAI SECURITIES· 2025-07-26 13:29
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal industry [2][5]. Core Insights - The expectation of supply contraction is rising, leading to a strong rebound in coal prices. This is primarily driven by policy changes on the supply side, which have intensified expectations of reduced supply. The "overproduction leads to shutdown" policy and a significant decrease in coal imports are key factors [7][8]. - The report highlights that the demand for electricity coal remains robust due to high temperatures, with power plants expected to maintain high daily consumption levels. The ongoing summer peak demand is anticipated to support coal prices [7][8]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The coal industry consists of 37 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 181.62 billion yuan and a circulating market value of 177.44 billion yuan [2]. 2. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Recent policy changes have led to increased uncertainty in domestic coal supply. A national coal mine production inspection is set to take place, focusing on compliance with production limits [7]. - In June 2025, China's imports of thermal coal fell to 23.93 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 31.11%, marking the lowest level in 28 months [7]. 3. Price Trends - As of July 25, 2025, the price of thermal coal at the Qinhuangdao port was 659 yuan per ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 11 yuan per ton, but a year-on-year decrease of 200 yuan per ton [8]. - The price of coking coal at the same port increased by 240 yuan per ton, with a week-on-week growth of 16.67% [8]. 4. Key Companies and Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on high-elasticity stocks such as Yanzhou Coal Mining, Shanxi Coal International, and Jin控煤业, which are expected to benefit from rising coal prices [7]. - Other companies like China Shenhua, Huaihe Energy, and Longyuan Power are also highlighted as potential beneficiaries of the favorable market conditions [7][8]. 5. Financial Performance and Dividends - The report tracks the dividend policies and growth prospects of key companies, indicating that several firms are expected to maintain or increase their dividend payouts in the coming years [13][14].
高温驱动日耗跃升,煤价仍具上涨动能
Xinda Securities· 2025-07-13 07:35
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal mining industry is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The current phase is the early stage of a new upward cycle in the coal economy, with a resonance between fundamentals and policies, making it an opportune time to accumulate coal sector investments [11][12] - The underlying investment logic of coal capacity shortages remains unchanged, with short-term supply-demand balance and long-term gaps still present [11][12] - Coal prices have established a bottom and are trending towards a new platform, with high profitability, cash flow, return on equity (ROE) of 10-20%, and dividend yields over 5% for quality coal companies [11][12] - The coal sector is relatively undervalued, with overall valuation expected to improve, supported by high premiums in the primary mining rights market and a price-to-book (PB) ratio around 1 for most companies [11][12] - The coal sector is expected to maintain a tight supply-demand balance over the next 3-5 years, with quality coal companies exhibiting high barriers to entry, cash flow, dividends, and yield characteristics [11][12] Summary by Sections Coal Price Tracking - As of July 12, the market price for Qinhuangdao port thermal coal (Q5500) is 624 CNY/ton, an increase of 8 CNY/ton week-on-week [28] - The price for coking coal at Jing Tang port is 1310 CNY/ton, up 60 CNY/ton week-on-week [30] Coal Supply and Demand Tracking - The capacity utilization rate for sample thermal coal mines is 93.7%, down 0.3 percentage points week-on-week, while the utilization rate for coking coal mines is 85.52%, up 1.7 percentage points [11][46] - Daily coal consumption in coastal provinces increased by 6.10 thousand tons/day (+2.92%) week-on-week, while inland provinces saw a decrease of 9.50 thousand tons/day (-2.61%) [11][47] Coal Inventory Situation - As of July 10, coal inventory in coastal provinces decreased by 785 thousand tons (-2.18%) week-on-week, while inland provinces saw a slight decrease of 0.70 thousand tons (-0.01%) [11][47] Key Companies to Watch - Focus on stable and robust performers such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and China Coal Energy [12] - Attention to companies with significant upside potential like Yanzhou Coal Mining, China Power Investment, and Guanghui Energy [12]
供需边际改善料持续,煤价反弹有望超预期
ZHONGTAI SECURITIES· 2025-07-12 13:20
Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Increase" for the coal industry [5]. Core Viewpoints - The coal price rebound is expected to exceed expectations due to continuous improvement in supply and demand margins [1]. - The report highlights strong support for coal prices driven by increased electricity demand during high-temperature weather, with significant historical peaks in power load recorded [7]. - The "anti-involution" policy is anticipated to create long-term uncertainties in domestic coal supply, while short-term supply is affected by heavy rainfall [6][8]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The coal industry consists of 37 listed companies with a total market value of 17,077.38 billion yuan and a circulating market value of 16,672.70 billion yuan [2]. 2. Price Tracking - The report notes that the price of thermal coal at the Qinhuangdao port was 637 yuan/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 9 yuan/ton [8]. - The average daily production of thermal coal from 462 sample mines was 5.642 million tons, showing a slight decrease compared to the previous week [8]. 3. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The report indicates that the demand for thermal coal is expected to rise due to increased electricity consumption during the summer heat, with a historical peak load of 2.52 million kilowatts recorded in the southern power grid [7]. - The supply side is constrained by heavy rainfall affecting production capacity, with the utilization rate of coal mines in the Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia regions at 80.4% [6]. 4. Company Performance and Recommendations - Key companies recommended for investment include Yancoal Energy, Guohui Energy, and Shanxi Coal International, which are expected to benefit from the rebound in coal prices [6][7]. - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on high-elasticity stocks in the coal sector, particularly those related to thermal and coking coal [6][7].
上海大屯能源股份有限公司2024年年度权益分派实施公告
Core Viewpoint - Shanghai Datuan Energy Co., Ltd. announced its annual profit distribution plan for 2024, which includes a cash dividend of 0.2 yuan per share, totaling approximately 144.54 million yuan [2][4]. Distribution Plan - The profit distribution plan was approved at the annual shareholders' meeting held on June 13, 2025 [2]. - The distribution is based on a total share capital of 722,718,000 shares [4]. - The cash dividend will be distributed to all shareholders registered with the China Securities Depository and Clearing Corporation Limited Shanghai Branch as of the close of trading on the registration date [3]. Implementation Method - Cash dividends will be distributed through the clearing system of the China Securities Depository and Clearing Corporation Limited [5]. - Shareholders who have not completed designated transactions will have their dividends held by the clearing company until the transactions are completed [5]. Taxation Details - Individual shareholders and securities investment funds will not have income tax withheld at the time of dividend distribution, resulting in a net cash dividend of 0.2 yuan per share [9]. - For individual shareholders with a holding period of less than or equal to one month, the effective tax rate is 20% [9]. - For qualified foreign institutional investors (QFII), a 10% tax will be withheld, resulting in a net cash dividend of 0.18 yuan per share [10]. Performance Forecast - The company expects a significant decline in net profit for the first half of 2025, projecting a net profit of 190 million to 230 million yuan, a decrease of 51.27% to 59.75% compared to the same period last year [12][13]. - The decline is attributed to a drop in average selling prices of premium coal and operational disruptions due to regulatory requirements [17]. Previous Year Performance - In the same period last year, the company reported a net profit of approximately 471.62 million yuan [15]. - The earnings per share for the previous year were 0.65 yuan [16].
上海能源: 上海能源2025年半年度业绩预减公告
Zheng Quan Zhi Xing· 2025-07-11 16:13
Core Viewpoint - The company anticipates a significant decline in net profit for the first half of 2025, projecting a decrease of over 50% compared to the same period last year [1][2]. Financial Performance Summary - The estimated net profit attributable to the parent company for the first half of 2025 is expected to be between 190 million to 230 million yuan, representing a decrease of 242 million to 282 million yuan, or a decline of 51.27% to 59.75% year-on-year [1][2]. - The estimated net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses is projected to be between 183 million to 225 million yuan, reflecting a decrease of 245 million to 287 million yuan, or a decline of 52.13% to 61.06% year-on-year [2]. Previous Year Comparison - In the same period last year, the total profit was 625.60 million yuan, with a net profit attributable to the parent company of 471.62 million yuan and a net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses of 470.02 million yuan [2]. - The earnings per share for the previous year were 0.65 yuan [2]. Reasons for Profit Decline - The significant year-on-year decline in operating performance is primarily attributed to a decrease in the average selling price of premium coal by 414.32 yuan per ton, a drop of 30.42%. Additionally, the implementation of disaster management projects at the Xu Zhuang coal mine, which resulted in no coal production in the first quarter, has also impacted the company's performance [2][3]. Strategic Response - In response to the challenging operational environment, the company is implementing a multi-faceted approach to stabilize production capacity, including scientific planning in production, targeted marketing strategies, and efforts to enhance quality and reduce costs [3].
上海能源(600508) - 2025 Q2 - 季度业绩预告
2025-07-11 11:30
证券代码:600508 证券简称:上海能源 编号:2025-024 上海大屯能源股份有限公司 2025 年半年度业绩预减公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、 误导性陈述或者重大遗漏,并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承 担法律责任。 重要内容提示: 经公司财务部门初步测算,预计 2025 年半年度实现归属于 母公司所有者的净利润为 1.90 亿元到 2.30 亿元,与上年同期相 比,将减少 2.42 亿元到 2.82 亿元,同比减少 51.27%到 59.75%。 预计 2025 年半年度实现归属于母公司所有者的扣除非经常 性损益的净利润为 1.83 亿元到 2.25 亿元,与上年同期相比,将 减少 2.45 亿元到 2.87 亿元,同比减少 52.13%到 61.06%。 业绩预告的具体适用情形:实现盈利,且净利润与上年同 期相比下降 50%以上。 业绩预告相关的主要财务数据情况: 1.上海大屯能源股份有限公司(以下简称"公司")预计 2025 年半年度实现归属于母公司所有者的净利润为 1.90 亿元到 2.30 亿元,与上年同期相比,将减少 2.42 亿元到 2.82 亿元,同比 ...
上海能源(600508) - 上海能源2024年年度权益分派实施公告
2025-07-11 11:30
证券代码:600508 证券简称:上海能源 公告编号:2025-023 上海大屯能源股份有限公司 2024年年度权益分派实施公告 一、 通过分配方案的股东会届次和日期 本次利润分配方案经公司2025 年 6 月 13 日的2024年年度股东会审议通过。 二、 分配方案 截至股权登记日下午上海证券交易所收市后,在中国证券登记结算有限责任公司上海分 公司(以下简称"中国结算上海分公司")登记在册的本公司全体股东。 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏,并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示: 每股分配比例 A 股每股现金红利0.2元 相关日期 | 股份类别 | 股权登记日 | 最后交易日 | 除权(息)日 | 现金红利发放日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | A股 | 2025/7/17 | - | 2025/7/18 | 2025/7/18 | 差异化分红送转: 否 1. 发放年度:2024年年度 2. 分派对象: 3. 分配方案: 本次利润分配以方案实施前的公司总股本722,718,000股为基数,每股派 ...