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同程旅行(00780):核心OTA盈利能力上行,国际业务快速扩张

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [7][19]. Core Insights - The adjusted net profit exceeded Bloomberg consensus expectations, with significant improvement in core OTA profitability [2][3]. - In Q4 2024, the company achieved revenue of 4.24 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 34.8%, and an adjusted net profit of 660 million yuan, up 36.8% year-on-year, with a net profit margin of 15.6% [3]. - The core OTA business showed a notable improvement in operating profit margin, which increased by 6.8 percentage points to 28.4% year-on-year [3][5]. Revenue Breakdown - The transportation business generated revenue of 1.72 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.0%, with international ticket market share expanding rapidly, and annual business volume growing over 130% [5]. - Accommodation business revenue reached 1.14 billion yuan, up 28.6% year-on-year, with international hotel business maintaining industry-leading growth, and annual business volume increasing over 110% [5]. - Other business revenue was 600 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.8%, with the Yilong hotel technology platform expanding to nearly 2,300 hotels [5]. - Vacation business revenue was 780 million yuan, driven by product and service value, supporting over 1,000 travel agency stores [5]. User Metrics - The average monthly paying user count reached a historical high of 43.1 million, up 4.4% year-on-year, with an annual paying user count of 240 million, an increase of 1.5% [6]. - The total service user count for the year reached 1.93 billion, a year-on-year increase of 9.3% [6]. Profit Forecast and Investment Suggestion - The company is positioned as a leading OTA in the lower-tier market, benefiting from Tencent and Ctrip's traffic and inventory resources, with competitive advantages in domestic business and active international market expansion [7]. - The adjusted net profit forecast for 2025-2027 is raised to 3.4 billion, 4.0 billion, and 4.7 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 13, 11, and 9 times [7].