SANYUAN(SH:600429) Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-03-25 06:31Investment Rating - The report gives an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking its first coverage in this context [6][7]. Core Views - The company is a well-established dairy enterprise in Beijing, with a solid fresh milk business and promising ice cream prospects. It has a strong consumer base and brand recognition in the region [6][9]. - The company is undergoing internal reforms aimed at improving quality and efficiency, transitioning from a revenue-oriented strategy to a profit-oriented one [6][9]. - The fresh milk segment holds a significant market position in Beijing, while the ice cream business is expected to continue its growth trajectory [6][9]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue projections for 2024-2026 are estimated at 7,000 million, 7,100 million, and 7,344 million respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of -11%, 1.6%, and 3.4% [2][7]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 540 million, 900 million, and 1,290 million for the same period, with growth rates of -78%, 65.5%, and 44% [2][7]. - The earnings per share are projected to be 0.04, 0.06, and 0.09 for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [2][7]. - The company’s price-to-earnings ratio (PE) for 2024-2026 is expected to be 122, 74, and 51 [2][7]. Business Segments - The liquid milk business is the primary revenue driver, contributing over 60% of total revenue, while the ice cream segment has shown a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 12% from 2020 to 2023 [21][22]. - The company is focusing on reducing SKU numbers and enhancing the proportion of high-end products to improve profitability [6][9]. - The ice cream business, particularly the "Baxi" brand, is expected to benefit from national expansion and improved market presence [6][9]. Market Position and Competitive Landscape - The company has a strong foothold in the Beijing market, with a significant share in the fresh milk segment, supported by a reliable supply chain from its parent company [57][60]. - The ice cream market is experiencing consolidation, with the company positioned to leverage its brand strength amid a challenging industry environment [61][62]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is implementing a series of internal reforms, including organizational restructuring and optimizing its product offerings to enhance operational efficiency [6][9]. - It is also focusing on asset restructuring to divest underperforming subsidiaries and strengthen its core business [40][41].