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名创优品(09896):经调整净利润同比+15%,关注同店改善及直营店爬坡
09896MNSO(09896) 华西证券·2025-03-25 09:07

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 16.994 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 22.8%, and an adjusted net profit of 2.72 billion yuan, up 15.4% year-on-year [2] - Domestic same-store sales faced pressure in the second half of the year, leading to a slowdown in revenue growth, while overseas business maintained high growth [3] - The company opened a net total of 1,219 new stores in 2024, implementing a channel upgrade strategy [4] - The gross margin increased for eight consecutive quarters, reaching 44.94%, while the expense ratio rose due to the expansion of direct-operated stores [5] - The company returned 1.5745 billion yuan to shareholders in 2024, including cash dividends and share buybacks, indicating a commitment to enhancing shareholder returns [6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company achieved a total revenue of 16.994 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 22.8% [2] - The adjusted net profit for 2024 was 2.72 billion yuan, reflecting a 15.4% increase compared to the previous year [2] - Revenue growth was driven by overseas MINISO and TOP TOY, which grew by 41.9% and 44.7% respectively, while domestic MINISO saw a growth of 10.9% [3] Store Expansion - The total number of stores reached 7,504 by the end of 2024, with 4,386 in mainland China and 3,118 overseas [4] - The company added 1,219 new stores in 2024, with significant contributions from both domestic and overseas markets [4] Profitability and Margins - The gross margin improved to 44.94%, up 3.7 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to higher revenue from high-margin IP products and an increase in overseas business [5] - The sales and distribution expense ratio increased to 21%, reflecting a 5 percentage point rise due to the expansion of direct-operated stores [5] Shareholder Returns - The company returned a total of 1.5745 billion yuan to shareholders in 2024, which included cash dividends of 1.2443 billion yuan and share buybacks of 330.2 million yuan [6] - The year-end dividend payout amounted to 740 million yuan, approximately 50% of the adjusted net profit for the second half of 2024 [6] Future Earnings Forecast - The company expects revenues of 21.1 billion yuan, 24.9 billion yuan, and 28.5 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 24%, 18%, and 14% [7] - The forecasted net profit for 2025, 2026, and 2027 is 2.94 billion yuan, 3.72 billion yuan, and 4.50 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 12%, 26%, and 21% [7]