东吴证券-资金流向和中短线指标体系跟踪（十）：行业主题ETF净流入提速，与宽基ETF流向持续分化

Macro Liquidity and Fund Prices - The central bank's net injection in the open market reached 498.5 billion yuan, indicating a significant easing of macro liquidity compared to the previous period[15] - Total injection was 1,411.7 billion yuan, while total withdrawal was 913.2 billion yuan, resulting in a net injection of 498.5 billion yuan[15] - The interbank liquidity has generally eased, with the overnight SHIBOR rate decreasing from 1.81% to 1.76%[19] Micro Liquidity and A-share Market - A-shares experienced a decrease in trading volume, with the average daily trading amount dropping by 1,061 billion yuan to 15 trillion yuan[25] - The net outflow of funds in A-shares totaled 8 billion yuan, primarily due to increased ETF redemptions and a slowdown in leveraged fund inflows[30] - Retail investor sentiment improved, with net inflows of 198.3 billion yuan, an increase of 90.2 billion yuan from the previous period[32] Fund Flows and ETF Trends - The total net outflow from stock ETFs was 119.9 billion yuan, an increase of 72.5 billion yuan compared to the previous period[48] - Broad-based ETFs saw a net outflow of 214 billion yuan, while industry-themed ETFs experienced a net inflow of 96 billion yuan, up by 24 billion yuan[48] - The top three inflowing ETFs were the Huaxia SSE Sci-Tech 50 ETF (34.1 billion yuan), the Guotai Junan CSI All-Share Securities Company ETF (17.4 billion yuan), and the E Fund ChiNext ETF (12.3 billion yuan)[56] Short-term Indicators and Market Trends - The divergence index between A-shares and the exchange rate indicates weak short-term predictive power for market trends[61] - The A-share and Hong Kong stock return divergence is narrowing, suggesting limited short-term implications for market movements[64] - The small-cap to large-cap turnover ratio has reached historical highs, indicating a high probability (over 95%) of a cooling trend in small-cap relative to large-cap turnover[71] Risk Factors - Potential risks include slower-than-expected economic recovery, unexpected overseas recession, geopolitical black swan events, and discrepancies in statistical data[76]