wanhua(600309) 中原证券·2025-03-25 15:01Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating to the company, indicating a potential increase of 5% to 15% relative to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [1][20]. Core Views - The company is expected to recover from performance declines due to impairment and expense growth, with a projected revenue of 182.07 billion yuan for 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.83% [5]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 13.03 billion yuan, a decrease of 22.49% year-on-year, primarily due to increased research and development expenses and asset impairment [5]. - The MDI market is anticipated to recover, driven by limited global capacity growth and increased demand from downstream sectors such as home appliances and automotive [8]. - The company's ethylene projects are expected to enhance profitability in its petrochemical business due to cost advantages over traditional oil routes [8]. - The company has a robust pipeline of new projects in fine chemicals and new materials, ensuring future growth potential [9]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of 182.07 billion yuan for 2024, with a net profit of 13.03 billion yuan, and basic earnings per share (EPS) of 4.15 yuan [5]. - The average prices for key raw materials such as pure benzene and propane have shown fluctuations, impacting overall profitability [5][6]. Market Outlook - The MDI industry is expected to see a recovery in demand, with price increases noted in 2025, which may improve industry profitability [8]. - The company is focusing on expanding its new materials business, with several projects set to launch in 2024, including a 20,000-ton POE and 48,000-ton citral facility [9]. Valuation Metrics - The projected EPS for 2024 and 2025 is 4.15 yuan and 5.39 yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 18.76 and 14.45 based on the closing price of 67.06 yuan [9].