神火股份（000933）：2024年报点评：电解铝成本上行拖累公司业绩，铝板块利润修复空间大

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the company, indicating an expectation to outperform the benchmark index by 10%-20% over the next six months [7][15]. Core Views - The company's performance has been negatively impacted by rising costs in the electrolytic aluminum sector, while there is significant potential for profit recovery in the aluminum segment [6][7]. - In 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 38.373 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.99%, but the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 27.07% to 4.307 billion yuan [6][7]. - The report highlights that the company’s investment income increased significantly, contributing to the overall profit despite the decline in core business performance [6][7]. Financial Summary - 2024 Financial Performance: - Total revenue: 38.373 billion yuan, up 1.99% year-on-year - Net profit: 4.307 billion yuan, down 27.07% year-on-year - Q4 performance: Total revenue of 10.059 billion yuan, up 11.82% year-on-year, but net profit down 57.38% year-on-year [6][7]. - Future Projections: - Expected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected at 5.563 billion yuan, 6.387 billion yuan, and 7.084 billion yuan respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 29.2%, 14.8%, and 10.9% [6][7][8]. - Valuation Metrics: - The report provides a target price of 22.2 yuan for 2025, with a current price of 19.44 yuan, indicating potential upside [6][7]. - The projected P/E ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 8, 7, and 6 respectively [6][7]. - Production and Sales: - In 2024, aluminum product production was 1.6285 million tons, up 7.28% year-on-year, while coal production decreased by 6% to 6.739 million tons [6][7]. - The company maintained a balanced production and sales strategy across its main products [6][7]. Market Context - The report notes that the domestic prices for electrolytic aluminum and alumina increased by 6.6% and 37% respectively, while coal prices saw a decline, impacting the company's profitability [6][7]. - The company’s strategic focus on its core business and divestment from non-core assets is expected to enhance its financial performance moving forward [6][7].