神火股份（000933）：2024年报点评报告：煤炭量价齐跌致业绩承压，关注煤铝成长及铝弹性

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2][4] Core Views - The company's performance is under pressure due to a decline in both coal prices and sales, but there is potential for growth in coal and aluminum segments, along with improved dividend returns for investors [4][5] - The company reported a revenue of 38.37 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 1.99%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 27.07% to 4.31 billion yuan [4][5] - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is 5.81 billion, 6.46 billion, and 7.01 billion yuan respectively, indicating a year-on-year growth of 34.9%, 11.2%, and 8.5% [4][5] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved a coal production of 6.739 million tons, a decrease of 6% year-on-year, with a total coal sales volume of 6.701 million tons, down 7.5% year-on-year [5][6] - The average selling price of coal in 2024 was 1,019.3 yuan per ton, a decrease of 7.8% year-on-year, while the comprehensive cost per ton increased by 33.5% to 849.4 yuan [5][6] - The aluminum segment showed a production and sales volume of 1.629 million tons, with a slight increase of 7.3% and 6.7% year-on-year respectively, and a selling price of 15,956.4 yuan per ton, down 3.7% year-on-year [5][6] Future Outlook - The company expects coal production to increase to approximately 7.2 million tons in 2025 following technical upgrades at the Liuhe coal mine, which will also help reduce costs [6] - The company has increased its dividend payout ratio to 41.78% in 2024, up by 11.3 percentage points from 2023, resulting in a current dividend yield of 4.1% based on the closing price on March 24, 2025 [6][7]