CATL(300750) 平安证券·2025-03-26 01:36Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, expecting the stock to outperform the market by over 20% within the next six months [13]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 362.01 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 9.7%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 15.0% to 50.75 billion yuan [4][6]. - The report highlights that the company's battery sales are steadily increasing, with a total lithium-ion battery sales volume of 475 GWh in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 21.8% [8]. - The overall gross margin improved to 24.44%, up 1.53 percentage points year-on-year, driven by lower raw material costs and the contribution of high-end products [8][9]. - The company is positioned as a global leader in lithium battery technology, with a comprehensive market layout and strong growth potential in the global lithium battery market [9]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue and Profitability: - 2024 revenue: 362.01 billion yuan, down 9.7% year-on-year [6]. - 2024 net profit: 50.75 billion yuan, up 15.0% year-on-year [4]. - Gross margin: 24.44%, up 1.53 percentage points [8]. - Net margin: 14.92%, up 3.26 percentage points [9]. - Future Projections: - Expected revenue growth of 27.3% in 2025, reaching 460.70 billion yuan [6]. - Projected net profit for 2025: 66.26 billion yuan, a growth of 30.6% [6]. - Key Financial Ratios: - Return on Equity (ROE) for 2024: 20.6% [11]. - Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio for 2025: 17.2 [11]. Business Segment Performance - Battery Segments: - Power battery revenue: 253.04 billion yuan, down 11.3% year-on-year, accounting for 69.9% of total revenue [8]. - Energy storage system revenue: 57.29 billion yuan, down 4.4% year-on-year, accounting for 15.8% of total revenue [8]. - Battery materials and recycling revenue: 28.70 billion yuan, down 14.6% year-on-year, accounting for 7.9% of total revenue [8]. - Sales Volume: - Power battery system sales: 381 GWh, up 18.9% year-on-year [8]. - Energy storage battery system sales: 93 GWh, up 34.3% year-on-year [8]. Investment Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from the growing global demand for lithium batteries, with a strong focus on technology and cost control advantages [9]. - The report suggests a downward adjustment in profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026, with net profit estimates of 66.26 billion yuan and 79.73 billion yuan, respectively [9].