CHINA TELECOM(601728) 华泰证券·2025-03-26 02:45Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6][4]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of RMB 523.57 billion in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 3.1%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 33 billion, up 8.4% year-on-year, slightly exceeding previous expectations [1][4]. - The company plans to distribute a dividend of RMB 0.26 per share for 2024, with a payout ratio of 72%, representing an 11.4% increase in dividends year-on-year [1]. - The digital business, particularly the Tianyi Cloud, is expected to thrive in the AI era, with significant growth in related services such as AIDC [1][2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company's mobile and fixed-line business revenues grew by 3.5% and 2.1% respectively in 2024, indicating strong operational resilience [2]. - The Tianyi Cloud business revenue increased by 17% to RMB 113.9 billion, with a computing power scale reaching 35 EFlops [2]. - The company executed 433 commercial projects with a contract value exceeding RMB 450 million within a month after the launch of DeepSeek, with a utilization rate of over 90% for its computing resources [2]. Capital Expenditure and Cash Flow - Capital expenditure decreased by 5.4% to RMB 93.5 billion in 2024, with investments in digitalization accounting for 35% of the total [3]. - The company expects capital expenditure to further decline by 10.6% to RMB 83.6 billion in 2025, while investments related to computing power are projected to grow by 22% [3]. - Free cash flow increased by 71% year-on-year to RMB 22.176 billion in 2024, attributed to stable capital expenditure and improved management of receivables and payables [3]. Profitability Forecast - The company is projected to achieve net profits of RMB 35.5 billion, RMB 37.8 billion, and RMB 39.9 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4][12]. - The report anticipates a book value per share (BPS) of RMB 5.07, RMB 5.20, and RMB 5.33 for the same years [4]. - The estimated price-to-book (PB) ratio for 2025 is set at 1.8 times, leading to a target price of RMB 9.13 [4][13]. Market Position - The company maintains a strong position in the IaaS+PaaS market, ranking among the top three in China [2]. - The revenue from quantum-related services grew by 239% year-on-year, and satellite communication revenue increased by 71%, contributing to the overall revenue growth [2].