FF301 股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 截至月份: 2026年3月31日 狀態: 新提交 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 公司名稱: 中國電信股份有限公司 呈交日期: 2026年4月1日 I. 法定/註冊股本變動 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | H | | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | | 是 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 00728 | 說明 | H股 | | | | | | | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | | 面值 | | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 13,877,410,000 | RMB | | 1 | RMB | | 13,877,410,000 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | | | | | RMB | | | | 本月底結存 | | | 13,877,410,000 | RMB | | | 1 RMB | | 13,877,410,000 | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Telecom with a target price of HKD 6.0, representing a potential upside of 26% from the current price of HKD 4.8 [2][5][7]. Core Insights - The company is transitioning towards a Token-based operational model in the AI era, with a continuous increase in dividend payout ratio, achieving a 75% payout rate ahead of the original 2026 target [3][7]. - Despite a stable revenue outlook, the company faced a decline in ARPU (Average Revenue Per User) for the first time in recent years, indicating pressure on core business segments [7]. - The company is diversifying its revenue streams, with significant growth in its data services and cloud business, particularly in the public cloud IaaS market [7]. - The report highlights the company's strategic shift from "cloud transformation" to "intelligent cloud services," integrating AI into traditional business operations to optimize costs and improve management [7]. Financial Summary - For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2025, the company reported total revenue of HKD 529.56 billion, with a net profit of HKD 33.19 billion, reflecting a year-on-year revenue growth of 0% and a slight decrease in net profit [6][7]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2026 is HKD 0.37, down from HKD 0.41 in 2025, indicating a 10.5% decline [6][7]. - The company’s capital expenditure for 2025 is estimated at HKD 804 billion, a decrease of 14.1% year-on-year, with a focus on enhancing computing infrastructure [7]. - The dividend per share is projected to be HKD 0.28 for 2026, with a dividend yield of 5.8% [6][7]. Operational Metrics - As of the end of 2025, the mobile user base reached 439 million, with 302 million 5G users, representing a penetration rate of 68.8% [7][16]. - The mobile ARPU decreased to HKD 45.1, down 1.1% year-on-year, while the broadband ARPU also saw a decline to HKD 47.1 [7][16]. - The company’s cloud revenue reached HKD 1.207 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 6.8%, solidifying its position as the second-largest player in the public cloud IaaS market in China [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Telecom with a target price of HKD 6.0, representing a potential upside of 26% from the current price of HKD 4.8 [2][4][6]. Core Insights - The company is transitioning towards a Token-based operational model in the AI era, with a focus on enhancing its dividend payout ratio, which has reached 75% ahead of the original target for 2026 [2][6]. - Despite a slight decline in revenue and net profit expectations, the company has shown resilience in maintaining a stable financial position with a debt ratio of 46.2% [6]. - The report highlights a decrease in Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) for both mobile and fixed broadband services, indicating pressure on core business operations [6]. - China Telecom's diversified revenue streams from digital services are growing, with significant contributions from cloud services and AI-related businesses [6]. Financial Summary - For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2025, the company is projected to achieve total revenue of HKD 529.56 billion, with a net profit of HKD 33.19 billion, translating to an earnings per share (EPS) of HKD 0.41 [5][6]. - The company’s capital expenditure is expected to decrease to HKD 73 billion in 2026, reflecting a strategic focus on cost management and efficiency [6]. - The report notes a decline in mobile ARPU to HKD 45.1, down 1.1% year-on-year, and a similar trend for fixed broadband ARPU [6][16]. Strategic Developments - The company is advancing its "Five-in-One" smart cloud system, integrating AI with traditional business models to enhance operational efficiency and customer service [6]. - China Telecom is actively managing cash flow pressures from VAT adjustments and is implementing refined accounts receivable management practices [6]. - The report emphasizes the company's commitment to providing differentiated Token services tailored to various customer segments [6].

FF301 股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 截至月份: 2026年3月31日 狀態: 新提交 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 公司名稱: 中國電信股份有限公司 呈交日期: 2026年4月1日 I. 法定/註冊股本變動 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | H | | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | | 是 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 00728 | 說明 | H股 | | | | | | | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | | 面值 | | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 13,877,410,000 | RMB | | 1 | RMB | | 13,877,410,000 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | | | | | RMB | | | | 本月底結存 | | | 13,877,410,000 | RMB | | | 1 RMB | | 13,877,410,000 | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several key companies in the telecommunications and commercial aerospace sectors, including China Telecom, Arista Networks, and others [8][36]. Core Insights - SpaceX plans to submit an IPO application soon, targeting a June 2026 listing with a fundraising goal exceeding $75 billion, which could become the largest IPO in history [2][12]. - The commercial aerospace sector is expected to experience significant catalytic events in 2026, with a focus on SpaceX's IPO process, domestic companies like Blue Arrow Aerospace accelerating their IPOs, and the first flights of reusable rockets [1][11]. - The report emphasizes the importance of the upcoming SpaceX IPO as a potential revaluation catalyst for the commercial aerospace sector, suggesting that the sector's investment value is becoming increasingly apparent [15]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The telecommunications index fell by 1.42% last week, while the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 1.09% and 0.76%, respectively [1][11]. Key Companies and Developments - The report highlights a favorable outlook for the telecommunications industry, particularly focusing on AI computing chains and commercial aerospace [3]. - Key recommended stocks include: - Walden Materials (002130 CH) with a target price of 43.21 - China Telecom (601728 CH) with a target price of 8.16 - Arista Networks (ANET US) with a target price of 166.30 - StarNet Ruijie (002396 CH) with a target price of 36.33 - Ruijie Networks (301165 CH) with a target price of 102.99 - China Mobile (600941 CH) with a target price of 114.30 - New Yisheng (300502 CH) with a target price of 476.71 - Zhongji Xuchuang (300308 CH) with a target price of 626.68 - Guanghuan New Network (300383 CH) with a target price of 18.87 [36]. SpaceX and Commercial Aerospace - SpaceX's valuation is reported at $1.75 trillion, with a projected 2025 revenue of $15-16 billion, primarily driven by its Starlink business [2][13]. - The report notes that SpaceX's IPO will reshape the global commercial aerospace valuation landscape, with domestic companies also accelerating their development [14]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that investors should take advantage of the current valuation range and focus on core suppliers in satellite manufacturing, rocket launches, and satellite operations as the commercial aerospace sector experiences significant growth and event-driven opportunities in 2026 [15].

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [4] Core Insights - The traditional business of operators continues to face pressure, with profitability shrinking due to the macroeconomic environment and high penetration of 5G. However, the digital transformation and intelligence initiatives are showing initial results, leading to a steady increase in revenue and stable profit growth due to cost reduction and decreased depreciation [1][18]. Revenue and Profitability - In 2025, the revenue of major operators remained stable: China Mobile achieved revenue of 1,050.2 billion, a year-on-year increase of 0.9%; China Telecom's operating revenue was 529.6 billion, showing a slight increase; China Unicom's revenue reached 392.2 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 0.7% [6]. - Profit growth slightly declined: In 2025, China Unicom's net profit attributable to shareholders was 9.13 billion, up 1.1% year-on-year; China Telecom's net profit was 33.2 billion, up 0.5%; China Mobile's net profit was 137.1 billion, a slight decrease of 0.9% [6]. Traditional Business Performance - Mobile communication service revenue for China Mobile decreased by 1.0% to 714.9 billion, with mobile ARPU slightly declining to 46.8 yuan/month/household. However, family broadband revenue grew by 8.0%, and enterprise broadband revenue increased by 6.7% [7]. - China Telecom's mobile communication service revenue increased by 1.0% to 204.5 billion, maintaining stable ARPU at 45.1 yuan/month/household [7]. Growth in Intelligent Services - Revenue from computing services and intelligent services is continuously increasing. China Mobile's computing service revenue grew by 11.1% to 89.8 billion, accounting for 10.0% of total revenue, while intelligent service revenue increased by 5.3% to 90.8 billion [9]. - China Telecom's intelligent revenue reached 12.3 billion, growing by 38.2%, indicating a shift towards token-based operations [9]. Capital Expenditure Trends - Capital expenditures are expected to continue decreasing, with the share of intelligent computing networks exceeding 35% [10][12]. - In 2025, China Mobile's capital expenditure was 150.9 billion, a decrease of 8.0%, while China Telecom's was 80.4 billion, with a projected decrease of 9.2% in 2026 [12][14]. Dividend Policy - The three major operators emphasize shareholder returns, with increasing dividend payout ratios: China Telecom, China Mobile, and China Unicom's interim dividends were 0.272, 5.27 (HKD), and 0.417 yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 4.7%, 3.5%, and 3.1% [15].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the communication industry, expecting the industry index to outperform the market index by over 10% in the next six months [2][43]. Core Insights - The "14th Five-Year Plan" outlines the construction of 500,000 5G-A base stations and the deployment of 10G optical networks, establishing a growth foundation for the industry over the next three years [3][15]. - The communication industry is currently experiencing a period of technological iteration and policy benefits, with new growth drivers emerging from AI, quantum communication, and low-altitude economy sectors [3][38]. - The penetration rate of 5G users has reached 67.6%, providing a solid user base for technological upgrades [3][38]. - The report highlights the recent surge in optical fiber procurement prices, indicating a recovery in upstream market conditions [3][38]. Industry Performance Review - The communication sector index increased by 0.39% over the two weeks from March 13 to March 26, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 4.87 percentage points, ranking second among 31 primary industries [10][11]. - For March, the communication sector index rose by 0.46%, again outperforming the CSI 300 index by 5.41 percentage points [10][11]. - Year-to-date, the communication sector has seen a cumulative increase of 7.55%, surpassing the CSI 300 index by 10.84 percentage points [10][11]. Subsector Performance - Among the six subsectors of the communication industry, the highest increase was seen in the SW Communication Network Equipment and Devices, which rose by 6.12% [3][16]. - The other subsectors experienced varying declines, with the SW Other Communication Equipment falling by 12.26% [3][16]. Industry Data Updates - As of February 2026, the number of mobile phone users reached approximately 1.826 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 2.03% [25][19]. - The total number of fixed internet broadband access users reached 694 million, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.61% [27][19]. - The number of 5G base stations reached 4.909 million, accounting for 38% of the total mobile base stations, with a net increase of 70,000 from the end of the previous year [35][19]. Company Announcements - China Mobile reported a projected net profit of 137.1 billion yuan for 2025, with a slight year-on-year decrease of 0.9% [21][19]. - China Unicom expects a net profit growth of 1.1% for 2025, with total revenue projected at 392.223 billion yuan [22][19]. - Lightwave Technology anticipates a net profit increase of 163.76% for 2025, with revenue growth of 47.56% [23][19]. - GuoDun Quantum announced a turnaround to profitability in 2025, with a net profit of 5.3919 million yuan [24][19].

Core Viewpoint - The three major telecom operators in China have shifted their investment focus towards "computing power," establishing it as the core of their capital expenditures, surpassing traditional network construction as the primary investment driver for the industry [3][4]. Group 1: Revenue Performance - In 2025, China Mobile reported operating revenue exceeding 1 trillion yuan, reaching 1.05 trillion yuan, maintaining its leadership position [3]. - China Telecom's operating revenue was 529.6 billion yuan, while China Unicom reported 392.2 billion yuan in operating revenue [3]. Group 2: Capital Expenditure Trends - China Mobile plans to reduce its total capital expenditure to 136.6 billion yuan in 2026, a decrease of 9.5% year-on-year, with computing power investments increasing by 62.4% to 37.8 billion yuan, accounting for approximately 28% of its capital expenditure [3]. - China Telecom's capital expenditure for 2025 was 80.4 billion yuan, with computing infrastructure investments of 20.2 billion yuan, making up about 25% of its total [4]. - China Unicom's total capital expenditure for the year was 54.2 billion yuan, with a projected capital expenditure of around 50 billion yuan for 2026, where computing power investments are expected to exceed 35% [4]. Group 3: Computing Power Capacity - As of now, China Mobile's total computing power capacity has reached 92.5 EFLOPS (FP16), while China Telecom's capacity stands at 91 EFLOPS, and China Unicom's capacity is at 45 EFLOPS [5]. - The demand for large AI models has highlighted that mere network connectivity is insufficient to meet market needs, indicating a fundamental restructuring of the operators' underlying logic from being mere "transporters of information" to becoming "computing power providers" in the intelligent era [5].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [12] Core Insights - The communication sector rose by 1.96% in the 11th week of 2026, ranking first among major industries, and has increased by 6.8% since the beginning of the year, ranking seventh [2][5] - GTC 2026 sees NVIDIA's introduction of the "Five Cabinet" inference solution, leading to significant growth in Scale-out optical interconnects [6] - OFC 2026 anticipates exponential growth in the AI-driven optical communication industry, with leading companies accelerating capacity expansion and multiple technology paths such as CPO, NPO, OCS, and XPO being implemented [7][10] - Domestic cloud providers are adjusting AI service pricing due to surging AI demand and rising supply chain costs [9] Summary by Sections Market Performance - In the 11th week of 2026, the communication sector's performance was highlighted, with significant individual stock movements, including a 26.8% increase for Yuanjie Technology and a 15.5% decrease for Fenghuo Communication [5] GTC 2026 Developments - NVIDIA forecasts that orders for the Blackwell and Rubin platforms will reach $1 trillion by 2027, doubling the previous estimate of $500 billion for 2026 [6] - The hardware aspect includes the release of Groq 3 LPU chips and Groq 3 LPX inference cabinets, achieving a total cabinet computing power of 315 PFLOPS [6] OFC 2026 Projections - The optical communication industry is expected to grow exponentially, with AI optical communication's total addressable market (TAM) projected to increase from $18 billion to over $90 billion from 2025 to 2030, reflecting a CAGR of approximately 40% [7] - InP chip demand is expected to grow at a CAGR of 85% from 2026 to 2030, with significant capacity expansions planned by major players [7] Technology Advancements - The industry is on the brink of entering the single-channel 400G era, with companies like Zhongji Xuchuang and Xinyi Sheng launching new optical modules and products [8] Pricing Adjustments by Cloud Providers - Major cloud providers in China, including Tencent Cloud and Alibaba Cloud, have significantly raised prices for AI services, with increases ranging from 5% to 34% [9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [6][11] Core Views - The company achieved operating revenue of RMB 523.93 billion in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 0.07%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 33.18 billion, up 0.52% year-on-year, which was below previous expectations [1] - The company plans to distribute a dividend of RMB 0.272 per share for 2025, with a payout ratio of 75%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 4.7% [1] - The demand for intelligent computing is rapidly expanding with the development of AI applications, and the company is transitioning towards a Token service model, which is expected to drive growth in its digital business [1][3] Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - The mobile communication service revenue for 2025 is projected to grow by 1.0% to RMB 204.5 billion, with a mobile user base of 439 million, reflecting a net increase of 14.13 million users [2] - The fixed-line and smart home service revenue is expected to grow by 0.2% to RMB 126 billion, with a fixed broadband user base of 201 million, a net increase of 3.68 million users [2] - The company's digitalization revenue is projected to grow by 0.5% to RMB 147.3 billion, focusing on high-quality, profitable business segments [3] Capital Expenditure and Cost Management - Capital expenditure for 2025 is estimated at RMB 80.4 billion, a decrease of 14% year-on-year, with a further expected decline of 9.2% to RMB 73 billion in 2026 [4] - The company has successfully reduced network operation and support costs by 2.1% year-on-year, aided by AI-driven cost management [4] Future Outlook - The company anticipates net profits of RMB 30.52 billion, RMB 31.98 billion, and RMB 33.17 billion for 2026, 2027, and 2028 respectively, with a downward adjustment of 16.6% from previous estimates [5][11] - The target price is set at RMB 8.16 based on a 1.6x PB valuation for 2026, with a corresponding target price of HKD 6.92 for H shares [5][11]