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同程旅行(00780):聚焦变现,货币化率提升支撑高增长

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [2][7]. Core Insights - The company's performance exceeded expectations, supported by strong monetization capabilities driving high revenue growth. The focus on refined subsidies and continuous efficiency improvements is enhancing profitability. The international business is expected to contribute as a second growth curve [3][7]. Financial Summary - Revenue for 2024 is projected to reach 17.34 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 49.12%. Adjusted net profit is expected to be 2.79 billion RMB, up 26.66% year-on-year. The adjusted EBITDA is forecasted at 4.05 billion RMB, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 29.65% [6][7]. - The company achieved revenue of 4.24 billion RMB in Q4 2024, a year-on-year increase of 34.76%. The core OTA segment generated revenue of 3.46 billion RMB, up 20.2% year-on-year. Adjusted net profit for Q4 was 660 million RMB, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 36.82% [7]. Market Performance - The current stock price is 19.12 HKD, with a 52-week price range of 12.70 to 22.30 HKD. The target price is set at 25.97 HKD, based on a 16x PE valuation for 2025, leading to a target market capitalization of 54.3 billion RMB [2][7].