福能股份：替代电量维持稳定，股东增持彰显信心-20250326

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [8]. Core Views - The company announced that its subsidiary, Jinjiang Gas Power, reported a replacement electricity volume of 2.28402 billion kWh for 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 5.86%. The transfer price is set at 0.3911 yuan per kWh, a slight increase of 0.13% year-on-year. This stable volume and price level will further ensure the project's profitability, reflecting long-term policy support [2][5]. - The controlling shareholder, Fujian Energy Group, has initiated a share buyback plan, demonstrating strong confidence in the company's long-term development and highlighting the importance of the company's market performance [2][11]. - The company has a robust project reserve, with approved capacity reaching 6.07 million kW, which is expected to significantly enhance its operational performance as these projects come online [11]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The current stock price is 9.24 yuan, with a total share capital of 278.014 million shares. The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is currently at 9.2 times, which is at the 10-year 10.22% percentile [8][11]. Financial Projections - The company expects earnings per share (EPS) of 1.04 yuan, 1.05 yuan, and 1.16 yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, corresponding to PE ratios of 8.93 times, 8.80 times, and 7.94 times [11][14]. Market Performance - The company has faced valuation pressure due to a weak thermal power sector and slow progress in offshore wind projects. However, the recent buyback by the controlling shareholder is expected to stabilize the stock price [11]. Project Development - The company has received approvals for several projects, including offshore wind and thermal power projects, which are anticipated to contribute significantly to future revenue growth [11]. Investment Recommendation - The report maintains a "Buy" rating based on the company's solid operational performance and growth potential from its project reserves [11].