NANSHAN ALUMINIUM(SH:600219) Huachuang Securities·2025-03-26 03:18Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for Nanshan Aluminum [2][7]. Core Views - The company's performance has significantly improved due to the rise in both volume and price of overseas alumina, leading to substantial revenue growth [2][7]. - In 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 334.77 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.06%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 48.30 billion yuan, up 39.03% year-on-year [7]. - The report highlights that the average prices of domestic electrolytic aluminum and Shandong alumina increased by 6.6% and 38.6% respectively in 2024 [7]. Financial Summary - Revenue Forecasts: - 2024A: 33,477 million yuan - 2025E: 36,881 million yuan - 2026E: 41,092 million yuan - 2027E: 44,001 million yuan - Year-on-year growth rates: 16.1%, 10.2%, 11.4%, 7.1% [3][8] - Net Profit Forecasts: - 2024A: 4,830 million yuan - 2025E: 5,488 million yuan - 2026E: 5,768 million yuan - 2027E: 6,044 million yuan - Year-on-year growth rates: 39.0%, 13.6%, 5.1%, 4.8% [3][8] - Earnings Per Share (EPS): - 2024A: 0.42 yuan - 2025E: 0.47 yuan - 2026E: 0.50 yuan - 2027E: 0.52 yuan [3][8] - Valuation Ratios: - Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio: 9 for 2024A, projected to be 8 for subsequent years [3][8]. - Price-to-Book (P/B) ratio: 0.9 for 2024A, projected to decrease to 0.7 by 2027E [3][8]. Production and Cost Efficiency - The company has achieved full production capacity at its 2 million tons alumina project in Indonesia, contributing to a net profit of 3.47 billion yuan, a 175% increase year-on-year [7]. - The total production of electrolytic aluminum in 2024 was 678,200 tons, a slight increase of 0.16% year-on-year [7]. - The report notes a decrease in total period expenses by 1.4% year-on-year, enhancing profitability [7].