CMOC(SH:603993) GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES·2025-03-26 03:23Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a significant increase in revenue and profit due to the release of production capacity from its overseas core mines, particularly in copper and cobalt, with a projected revenue of 2130.29 billion and a net profit of 135.32 billion for 2024, representing year-on-year growth of 14.37% and 64.03% respectively [1] - The company’s copper production is forecasted to reach 650,200 tons in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 54.97%, while cobalt production is expected to grow by 105.61% to 114,200 tons [1] - The suspension of cobalt exports from the Democratic Republic of the Congo is anticipated to alleviate the oversupply in the cobalt market, potentially leading to increased prices and profit contributions from the cobalt segment in 2025 [1][2] Financial Summary - For 2024, the company reported a revenue of 213,029 million, a year-on-year growth of 14.4%, and a net profit of 13,532 million, reflecting a 64.0% increase [3] - The projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 14,641 million, 16,915 million, and 18,718 million respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 11.2, 9.7, and 8.8 [2][3] - The company’s gross margin for the copper segment is 50.26%, while the cobalt segment has a gross margin of 34.31% [1] Production and Sales Performance - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a copper production of 174,000 tons, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 7.3%, and a sales volume of 219,000 tons, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter growth of 38% [1] - The average sales cost for copper was 30,200 yuan per ton, with an average gross profit of 30,500 yuan per ton [1] Market Outlook - The report suggests that the tightening supply of upstream resources and improved demand expectations are likely to support copper prices in 2025, benefiting the company [1] - The suspension of cobalt exports from the Democratic Republic of the Congo is expected to reduce global cobalt supply by 73,300 tons, which could support higher cobalt prices [1][2]