Milkground(600882) 华鑫证券·2025-03-26 03:30Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company's performance met expectations, with significant profit release observed. Total revenue and net profit for 2024 were 484.4 million and 114 million yuan, respectively, showing a year-on-year change of -9.0% and +89.2% [5] - Successful integration with Mengniu Cheese is anticipated to enhance dual-brand synergy and operational efficiency, solidifying the company's leadership in the cheese category [6] - The company is expected to improve profitability through capacity ramp-up and cost control, with projected EPS for 2025-2027 at 0.42, 0.62, and 0.80 yuan, corresponding to PE ratios of 50, 34, and 26 times [9] Summary by Sections Performance Overview - The company's total revenue for 2024 was 484.4 million yuan, with a net profit of 114 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease in revenue of 9.0% and an increase in net profit of 89.2% [5] - Gross margin and net margin were 28.99% and 2.35%, respectively, with slight improvements year-on-year [5] Integration and Development - Revenue from cheese, liquid milk, and trading products for 2024 was 375.7 million, 40.1 million, and 53.1 million yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 7%, 4%, and a decline of 35% [6] - The company has completed the merger with Mengniu Cheese, enhancing channel integration and operational efficiency [6] Channel Development - Revenue from distribution, direct sales, and trading channels for 2024 was 367.3 million, 48.5 million, and 53.1 million yuan, with year-on-year changes of +9%, -10%, and -35% [7] - The company has a robust distribution network with 7,797 distributors and nearly 800,000 terminal points [7] Profitability Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenue growth rates of 12.7%, 12.3%, and 11.8% for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [11] - The net profit is expected to grow significantly, with forecasts of 238 million, 363 million, and 472 million yuan for the same years [11]