兴通股份：外贸业务高景气，全年业绩大幅增长-20250326

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [3][8]. Core Insights - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 1.515 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 22.43%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 350 million RMB, up 38.95% [1]. - The growth in revenue was primarily driven by foreign trade chemical transportation, which saw a revenue increase of 92% to 600 million RMB [1]. - The company's gross margin improved to 36%, an increase of 2.76 percentage points, attributed to rising shipping rates due to geopolitical factors [2]. - The company has consistently secured new shipping capacity, ranking first in the 2024 capacity review, which enhances its market position [2]. Financial Summary - Revenue and profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted, with net profit estimates of 410 million RMB for 2025, 510 million RMB for 2026, and 580 million RMB for 2027 [3][6]. - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is projected to improve, reaching 15.17% by 2027 [6]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to decrease from 12.77 in 2024 to 8.06 in 2027, indicating potential undervaluation [6]. Market Demand and Capacity - The report highlights that domestic chemical transportation revenue declined by 1%, with a notable 8% drop in chemical transportation revenue, while refined oil and LPG transportation revenues grew by 10% and 27%, respectively [1]. - The company is expected to increase its shipping capacity by 36% with six chemical ships under construction, totaling 129,600 deadweight tons [2].