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昆仑能源(00135):年报点评:业绩稳健增长,毛差环比H1修复

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price not specified [4]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of RMB 187.046 billion for 2024, an increase of RMB 9.692 billion or 5.5% year-on-year. The net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 5.960 billion, up RMB 0.278 billion or 4.9% year-on-year, while the core profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 6.359 billion, an increase of RMB 0.215 billion or 3.5% year-on-year. The annual dividend was set at RMB 0.3158 per share, with a payout ratio of approximately 43% [1]. - The company's gas sales volume outperformed the industry, with a total of 54.170 billion cubic meters sold in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 9.9%. Retail gas sales accounted for 32.757 billion cubic meters, up 8.1% year-on-year, while distribution and trading reached approximately 21.4 billion cubic meters, a 12.9% increase year-on-year [1][2]. - The company is expanding its business into high-growth and high-profit regions in the central and western provinces, with retail gas sales in the northwest and southwest growing by 12% and 19.2% respectively [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company achieved a total revenue of RMB 1870.46 billion, with a net profit of RMB 59.60 billion and a core profit of RMB 63.59 billion for the year [1]. - The average procurement price for gas was RMB 2.37 per cubic meter, while the selling price was RMB 2.84 per cubic meter, resulting in a weighted average price difference of RMB 0.47 per cubic meter [2]. LNG Operations - The LNG receiving stations in Tangshan and Jiangsu had a gasification loading volume of 15.940 billion cubic meters, a decrease of 2.4% year-on-year, with an average load factor of 87.6%, down 3 percentage points [2]. - The operational efficiency of LNG plants improved, with 13 plants achieving profitability and one plant reducing losses. The processing volume increased to 3.55 billion cubic meters, a year-on-year increase of 25.6% [2]. Exploration and Production - The exploration and production segment faced significant impacts due to the expiration of contracts for the Liaohe and Peru oil fields. The company reported a crude oil sales volume of 8.29 million barrels, a decrease of 0.92 million barrels or 10% year-on-year, with an average realized price of USD 66.7 per barrel [3]. Profit Forecast - The profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been revised down to RMB 6.414 billion and RMB 7.011 billion respectively, with a new forecast for 2027 set at RMB 7.656 billion. The EPS for 2025, 2026, and 2027 is projected to be RMB 0.74, RMB 0.81, and RMB 0.88 respectively [4].