Yangnong Chemical(SH:600486) KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2025-03-26 05:30Investment Rating - The investment rating for Yangnong Chemical is maintained as "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company's performance is under pressure due to increased volume but decreased prices in raw materials and formulations. The Huludao project is progressing rapidly, which is expected to enhance long-term growth potential [4][5] - The company reported a revenue of 10.435 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 9.09%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.202 billion yuan, down 23.19% year-on-year. The fourth quarter showed a revenue increase of 9.76% year-on-year [4][5] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.68 yuan per share (before tax) [4] Financial Summary - Revenue and profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted downwards due to intensified competition in the pesticide industry. The expected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.410 billion yuan, 1.600 billion yuan, and 1.823 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 3.47 yuan, 3.93 yuan, and 4.48 yuan [4][7] - The company's gross margin and net margin for 2024 were 23.11% and 11.53%, respectively, both showing a decline compared to the previous year [5][12] - The company’s total market capitalization is approximately 21.961 billion yuan, with a current stock price of 54.00 yuan, corresponding to a P/E ratio of 15.6 for 2025 [1][7] Business Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a raw material sales volume of 99,900 tons and a formulation sales volume of 36,400 tons, with year-on-year increases of 3.5% and 1.8%, respectively. However, revenue from raw materials and formulations decreased by 13.1% and 7.8% year-on-year [5][9] - The average selling price for raw materials and formulations decreased by 16.0% and 9.4% year-on-year, respectively, indicating pricing pressure in the market [5][9] - The company is expected to benefit from the recovery of demand in the overseas market and the ongoing progress of the Huludao project, which is anticipated to drive future growth [5][12]