Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tencent Holdings (0700.HK) with a target price of 559.92 HKD [3][8]. Core Insights - The report highlights strong growth in advertising driven by AI, alongside robust performance in gaming during the Q1 Spring Festival period [2]. - The forecast for IFRS net profit for 2024-2026 is adjusted to 194.1 billion, 226.1 billion, and 250.1 billion RMB respectively, reflecting an upward revision due to increased advertising and other revenues [3]. - Non-IFRS net profit estimates for the same period are projected at 222.7 billion, 257.6 billion, and 285.6 billion RMB [3]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the expected operating revenue is 660.26 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 8.41% [4]. - The operating profit for 2024 is forecasted at 200.1 billion RMB, showing a significant increase of 30.97% year-on-year [4]. - The attributable net profit for 2024 is projected at 194.07 billion RMB, reflecting a substantial growth of 68.44% year-on-year [4]. - The gross margin is expected to improve to 52.90% in 2024, up from 48.13% in 2023 [4]. - The net profit margin is anticipated to rise to 29.39% in 2024, compared to 18.92% in 2023 [4]. Revenue Breakdown - For Q4 2024, total revenue is reported at 172.4 billion RMB, with a year-on-year increase of 11% [8]. - The revenue from value-added services is expected to reach 79 billion RMB, growing by 14% year-on-year [8]. - Gaming revenue for Q4 2024 is projected at 49.2 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 20% [8]. - Marketing services revenue is anticipated to be 35 billion RMB, with a year-on-year increase of 17% [8]. - Financial technology and enterprise services revenue is expected to be 56.1 billion RMB, showing a 3% year-on-year growth [8]. Valuation Data - The report employs a Sum-of-the-Parts (SOTP) valuation method, with a target price of 559.92 HKD based on various business segments [3][10]. - The estimated market capitalization for Tencent's H shares is approximately 4.62 trillion HKD [8]. - The report provides a detailed breakdown of Tencent's business segments, including gaming, social advertising, and financial technology, with respective valuations [10][11].
腾讯控股(00700):AI驱动广告高速增长,Q1春节档游戏强劲