Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of HKD 56.05 [8][9]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of RMB 430 million for 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 21%. However, it incurred a net loss of RMB 510 million and an adjusted net loss of RMB 480 million. The sales performance of the product, Sipulizumab, in the nasal indication has shown strong initial results, with sales of approximately RMB 43 million in the first three and a half months post-approval [1][2]. - The company is expected to continue its progress in commercialization and pipeline development, particularly in the nasal indication, which is currently the only approved treatment in China. The potential for significant sales growth is anticipated due to the product's efficacy and safety profile [1][3]. - The company has a robust pipeline with several clinical trials underway, including CM313 for systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) and other indications. Data from the I/II phase trials for SLE is expected to be disclosed in the second half of 2025 [3][4]. Financial Performance and Projections - The company’s cash reserves are strong, with cash and cash equivalents amounting to RMB 2.16 billion by the end of 2024. This financial position supports ongoing commercialization efforts and pipeline development [4]. - Revenue projections have been adjusted, with expected revenues of RMB 717 million in 2025 and RMB 1.096 billion in 2026, reflecting a significant growth trajectory [7][13]. - The earnings per share (EPS) estimates have been revised to -RMB 2.69 for 2025 and -RMB 2.33 for 2026, with a projected positive EPS of RMB 0.36 in 2027 [5][21]. Valuation - The company’s fair value based on discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis is estimated at approximately RMB 14.3 billion, leading to a target price of HKD 56.05, reflecting a weighted average cost of capital (WACC) of 10.3% and a perpetual growth rate of 2.5% [5][17].
康诺亚-B：商业化初露锋芒，看好鼻科销售-20250326