NANSHAN ALUMINIUM(SH:600219) KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2025-03-26 06:15Investment Rating - The investment rating for Nanshan Aluminum is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 33.48 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 16.1%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.83 billion yuan, up 39.0% year-on-year [4][5] - The increase in profits is primarily attributed to the significant rise in alumina prices, with expectations for continued strong performance in Q4 2024 [4][5] - The company is expanding its alumina production capacity in Indonesia, with a total of 2 million tons planned, which is expected to further enhance its performance [5] - The company has maintained a high dividend payout ratio of over 40% in 2024, reflecting its commitment to shareholder returns [6] Financial Summary and Valuation Indicators - Revenue and net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted, with expected net profits of 5.14 billion, 4.92 billion, and 5.51 billion yuan respectively, showing a year-on-year change of +6.4%, -4.3%, and +12.0% [4][8] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 0.44, 0.42, and 0.47 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 8.9, 9.3, and 8.3 times [4][8] - The company’s gross margin is expected to be 28.4% in 2025, with a net margin of 14.6% [8] - The company’s total assets are projected to reach 76.12 billion yuan by 2025, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 17.8% [10]