Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative price increase of over 20% against the market benchmark within the next six months [6][17]. Core Viewpoints - The company's 2024 revenue was reported at 7.47 billion RMB, a decrease of 6.8%, with drug sales revenue at 8.62 billion RMB, down 9%. The annual profit was 1.61 billion RMB, reflecting a decline of 32.3%, but the performance met expectations [1]. - The company has seen its non-national procurement exclusive varieties and innovative products account for over 50% of its revenue, indicating a positive shift towards innovation [2]. - The impact of centralized procurement on three key products resulted in a revenue of 2.69 billion RMB, down 28.8% year-on-year. However, revenue from non-national procurement exclusive and innovative products reached 4.55 billion RMB, up 4.1%, making up 52.8% of total revenue, suggesting that the short-term impact of centralized procurement has largely cleared [3]. - The company is entering a harvest phase for its innovative business, with a significant product, Luracitinib, expected to be launched by 2025. In 2024, one innovative product was successfully launched, and another received approval for a new indication, indicating progress in its pipeline [4]. Financial Data and Forecast - The company’s financial projections for 2025-2027 estimate net profits of 1.63 billion RMB, 2.04 billion RMB, and 2.46 billion RMB, representing growth rates of 1%, 25%, and 21% respectively. This reflects an adjustment from previous forecasts [4]. - The main revenue figures are as follows: 2023A at 8.01 billion RMB, 2024A at 7.47 billion RMB, with expected growth rates of -12%, -7%, and positive growth in subsequent years [5]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 0.67 RMB in 2025, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 10.2, indicating a stable valuation outlook [5].
康哲药业（00867）：业绩符合预期，看好创新转型逐步兑现