CM BANK(SH:600036) Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-03-26 07:44Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2] Core Views - The company is expected to see a recovery in performance in 2025, driven by stable profits, manageable risks, and a favorable dividend policy [9] - The bank's revenue for 2024 showed a slight decline of 0.5% year-on-year, but net profit increased by 1.2% [5][7] - The bank's loan growth target for 2025 is set at 7-8%, with a strong performance in both retail and corporate lending [7][11] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue is projected to grow from 337,488 million in 2024 to 344,327.1 million in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of 2.03% [6] - Net profit is expected to increase from 148,391 million in 2024 to 153,326.11 million in 2025, with a growth rate of 3.33% [6] - The bank's return on equity (ROE) is forecasted to decline slightly from 14.5% in 2024 to 13.5% in 2025 [6] Revenue and Profitability Analysis - The bank's net interest income showed signs of improvement, with a quarterly increase of 3% in Q4 2024, contributing positively to revenue growth [7] - The cost-to-income ratio has decreased, supporting profit growth, with a positive contribution of 1.3 percentage points to profit growth [7] - The bank's dividend payout ratio for 2024 was 35.32%, indicating a commitment to returning value to shareholders [7] Asset Quality and Risk Management - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio remained stable at 0.95% in Q4 2024, with a slight increase of 1 basis point from the previous quarter [9] - The bank's provision coverage ratio decreased to 412%, down 20.2 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, indicating a cautious approach to risk management [5][9] - The overall asset quality is expected to remain manageable, with a focus on controlling risks in retail and corporate lending [9][15]