农夫山泉（09633）：顶住压力，平稳收官

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a significant price increase over the next 6-12 months [3]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 42.896 billion yuan in 2024, a slight increase of 0.5% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 12.123 billion yuan, up 0.4% year-on-year. The performance aligns with expectations [1]. - The decline in H2 packaging water sales is offset by strong growth in health-oriented beverages. The company is focusing on promotional strategies for its green bottle products, which have seen a recovery in market share after initial declines [2]. - The company is expected to see net profits of 14 billion yuan, 17 billion yuan, and 19.7 billion yuan in 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting growth rates of 19%, 18%, and 16% [3]. Revenue Breakdown - In H2 2024, the revenue from various product categories was as follows: packaging water 7.42 billion yuan (down 24%), tea beverages 8.32 billion yuan (up 13%), functional beverages 2.38 billion yuan (down 3%), juice 1.97 billion yuan (up 7%), and other products 630 million yuan (down 12%) [2]. - The company’s gross margin and net margin for H2 2024 were 57.3% and 28.4%, respectively, with a slight year-on-year decline in gross margin [2]. Profitability and Cost Management - The company has improved its net profit margin through strict cost control, with sales and management expense ratios at 20.3% and 5.1%, respectively, both down 0.4 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - The report highlights that the company’s operating profit margin was 30.0% in H2 2024, down 6.1 percentage points year-on-year, while the profit margin for sugar-free tea reached a historical peak of 46.3% [2]. Future Outlook - The report expresses optimism for 2025, anticipating a recovery in market share and significant earnings elasticity due to a low base effect and a more favorable competitive environment [2].