YADEA(01585) Xinda Securities·2025-03-26 08:23Investment Rating - The investment rating for Yadea Holdings (1585.HK) is not explicitly stated in the provided documents, but the report indicates a positive outlook for the company's performance in 2025 and beyond, suggesting a potential "Buy" or "Hold" rating based on expected growth [1][2][3]. Core Viewpoints - Yadea Holdings is expected to achieve significant sales growth in Q1 2025, with overall performance anticipated to surpass that of 2023. The company is likely to benefit from scale effects and increased sales of mid-to-high-end flagship models, which may lead to greater profit elasticity compared to sales growth [2]. - The company is positioned to benefit from the "old-for-new" policy and new national standards, which are expected to stimulate consumer demand and enhance market share concentration among leading companies. Yadea's new models are anticipated to receive national inspection approval around mid-year, allowing for a timely transition to new standards [2]. - Yadea is focusing on the mid-to-high-end market with three flagship series: Guan Neng, Mo Deng, and Fei Yue, which are expected to drive sales growth in 2025. The sales proportion of these flagship models is projected to increase significantly [3]. - The company is enhancing its retail capabilities and expanding its distribution network, which is expected to restore profitability in its channels. The global retail summit held in December 2024 is part of this strategy [3]. - Yadea is actively pursuing international expansion, having established research and production bases in Vietnam and Indonesia, and subsidiaries in Germany and the United States. This localization strategy is expected to support the company's growth in overseas markets [3]. Financial Summary - In 2024, Yadea Holdings reported revenues of 28.236 billion yuan, a decrease of 18.8% year-on-year, with a net profit of 1.272 billion yuan, down 51.8%. The net profit margin was 4.5%, a decline of 3.1 percentage points [1][6]. - For the years 2025 to 2027, the company is projected to achieve revenues of 39 billion yuan, 44.164 billion yuan, and 48.655 billion yuan, respectively, representing growth rates of 38%, 13%, and 10% [6][8]. - The net profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 2.85 billion yuan, 3.368 billion yuan, and 3.836 billion yuan, indicating a recovery and growth trajectory with respective growth rates of 124%, 18%, and 14% [6][8]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to increase from 0.42 yuan in 2024 to 0.92 yuan in 2025, 1.08 yuan in 2026, and 1.23 yuan in 2027 [6][8].