SINOTRANS(SH:601598) Minsheng Securities·2025-03-26 09:39Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [6]. Core Views - The company emphasizes shareholder returns, increasing its dividend payout ratio from 50% in 2023 to 54% in 2024, resulting in a dividend per share of 0.29 yuan, maintaining a dividend yield of 5.6% based on the market capitalization of 37.7 billion yuan as of March 25, 2025 [3][4]. - The company is focusing on AI applications in logistics, achieving over 15 million document automation services annually and maintaining a leading position in domestic autonomous driving operations with over 2.4 million kilometers [4]. - The company is expanding its overseas network, with overseas investments increasing by 44% year-on-year and overseas revenue growing by 9% in 2024 [4]. Revenue and Profit Analysis - In 2024, the company achieved a total revenue of 105.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4%, with a gross profit of 5.54 billion yuan, down 4.6% year-on-year, resulting in a gross margin of 5.2% [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 was 3.92 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.0% year-on-year, with a net profit margin of 3.7% [1][5]. - The company’s revenue from freight forwarding was 67.17 billion yuan, up 8.48% year-on-year, while the professional logistics segment generated 27.95 billion yuan, a modest increase of 1.56% [2][3]. Business Segment Performance - The freight forwarding segment saw revenue growth driven by sea and air freight, while the railway segment experienced a decline in profit due to price reductions [2]. - The professional logistics segment faced challenges with a 16.26% drop in gross profit, primarily due to lower contract prices and fixed cost pressures [3]. - The e-commerce logistics business reported a revenue decline of 14.38%, although the logistics e-commerce platform managed to handle 269,900 standard containers, reflecting a 9% increase [3]. Financial Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 110.3 billion yuan, 114.5 billion yuan, and 119.5 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding growth rates of 4.5%, 3.7%, and 4.4% [4][5]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to rise to 4.18 billion yuan in 2025, with a growth rate of 6.7% [5][10]. - The current price-to-earnings (PE) ratios are forecasted to be 10, 9, and 9 for the next three years, indicating a favorable valuation trend [5][10].