Chongqing Baiya Sanitary Products (SZ:003006) Southwest Securities·2025-03-26 10:23Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of —— yuan over the next six months [1][7]. Core Insights - The company has shown impressive revenue growth, with a projected increase in revenue from 32.5 billion yuan in 2024 to 69.9 billion yuan by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 22.78% [2][10]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to grow from 287.67 million yuan in 2024 to 629.52 million yuan in 2027, with a notable increase in earnings per share (EPS) from 0.67 yuan to 1.47 yuan during the same period [2][12]. - The company is focusing on optimizing its product structure, with an increasing proportion of mid-to-high-end products, which is expected to enhance gross margins [7][9]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 32.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 51.8%, and a net profit of 2.9 billion yuan, up 20.7% from the previous year [7]. - The gross margin for the year was reported at 53.2%, an increase of 2.9 percentage points, driven by the optimization of the product mix [7]. - The company’s sales expenses increased due to heightened marketing efforts, resulting in a total expense ratio of 43.4% [7]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The forecast for 2025-2027 indicates a steady increase in revenue and net profit, with EPS projected to be 0.88 yuan in 2025, 1.16 yuan in 2026, and 1.47 yuan in 2027 [2][12]. - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is expected to decrease from 35 in 2024 to 16 by 2027, indicating a potentially attractive valuation as earnings grow [2][12]. Market Expansion and Channel Development - The company is accelerating its e-commerce channel development, with online sales expected to grow significantly, reflecting a 103.8% increase in 2024 [7][10]. - The offline channel is also expanding, particularly in core markets such as Sichuan and Yunnan, with revenue growth of 11.5% and 18.9% respectively [7][10]. Product Development and Innovation - The company is focusing on the development of new products, particularly in the probiotic series, which is expected to become a flagship product [7][9]. - The company’s product categories include sanitary napkins, baby diapers, and ODM, with sanitary napkins showing the highest revenue growth of 59.9% in 2024 [7][10].