SINOTRANS(SH:601598) Minsheng Securities·2025-03-26 10:23Investment Rating - The report gives a "Recommended" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance in the next 12 months [6]. Core Views - The company emphasizes shareholder returns, increasing its dividend payout ratio from 50% in 2023 to 54% in 2024, resulting in a dividend per share of 0.29 yuan, maintaining the same level as 2023, which translates to a dividend yield of 5.6% based on the market capitalization of 37.7 billion yuan as of March 25, 2025 [3][4]. - The company is focusing on the application of AI in logistics, achieving significant advancements such as processing over 15 million documents annually and accumulating over 240 million kilometers in autonomous driving operations [4]. - The company is also enhancing its overseas network, with overseas investments increasing by 44% year-on-year and overseas revenue growing by 9% [4]. Revenue and Profit Analysis - In 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 105.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4%, while gross profit was 5.54 billion yuan, down 4.6% year-on-year, resulting in a gross margin of 5.2% [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 was 3.92 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.0% year-on-year, with a net profit margin of 3.7% [1][5]. - The company’s revenue from freight forwarding was 67.17 billion yuan, up 8.48% year-on-year, while the professional logistics segment generated 27.95 billion yuan, a modest increase of 1.56% [2][3]. Business Segment Performance - The freight forwarding segment saw revenue growth across various services, with sea freight and air freight revenues increasing by 9% and 34% respectively, while the railway and vessel agency services experienced declines [2]. - The professional logistics segment's revenue was impacted by a decrease in service contract prices, leading to a significant drop in segment profit by 40% [3]. - The e-commerce logistics segment reported a revenue decline of 14.38%, although the logistics e-commerce platform managed to handle 269,900 standard containers, reflecting a 9% increase year-on-year [3]. Financial Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 110.3 billion yuan, 114.5 billion yuan, and 119.5 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 4.5%, 3.7%, and 4.4% [4][5]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to rise to 4.18 billion yuan in 2025, with a growth rate of 6.7% [5].