农夫山泉：业绩稳健增长，茶饮表现突出-20250326

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6]. Core Views - The company demonstrated steady revenue growth with a total revenue of 42.896 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 0.5%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 12.123 billion yuan, also up by 0.4% year-on-year. However, the second half of 2024 saw a decline in revenue and net profit, both down by 6.7% [1][3]. - The packaging water segment faced challenges due to public opinion but is expected to recover in 2025, supported by new product launches and packaging upgrades [1]. - The beverage segment, particularly tea drinks, showed strong performance with a revenue increase of 32.3% year-on-year, contributing significantly to overall growth [2]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue and Profit: In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 42.896 billion yuan and a net profit of 12.123 billion yuan. Projections for 2025-2027 indicate a net profit growth of 15.6%, 15.0%, and 16.0%, reaching 14 billion yuan, 16.1 billion yuan, and 18.7 billion yuan respectively [5][3]. - Gross Margin: The gross margin for 2024 was reported at 58.1%, a decrease of 1.46 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to promotional activities for new products and rising raw material costs [3]. - Expense Ratios: The company managed to reduce its sales, management, and financial expense ratios, leading to a net profit margin of 28.3% [3]. Product Segment Performance - Packaging Water: Revenue from packaging water was 15.95 billion yuan in 2024, down 21.3% year-on-year, but recovery is anticipated in 2025 due to strategic product launches [1]. - Beverage Products: The tea and juice segments performed well, with revenues of 16.74 billion yuan and 4.08 billion yuan respectively, marking increases of 32.3% and 15.6% year-on-year [2]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain its leading position in the packaging water industry and continue its innovative product development strategy, which is likely to drive future growth [3].