农夫山泉：顶住压力，平稳收官-20250326

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a significant price increase over the next 6-12 months [3]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 42.896 billion yuan in 2024, a slight increase of 0.5% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 12.123 billion yuan, up 0.4% year-on-year. The performance aligns with expectations [1]. - The decline in H2 packaging water sales is offset by strong growth in health-oriented beverages. The revenue breakdown for H2 shows packaging water at 7.42 billion yuan (-24%), tea beverages at 8.32 billion yuan (+13%), functional beverages at 2.38 billion yuan (-3%), juice at 1.97 billion yuan (+7%), and other products at 630 million yuan (-12%) [2]. - The company is expected to recover fully in 2025, driven by a differentiated product strategy and refined channel operations, with significant earnings elasticity anticipated from a low base [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H2 2024, the company reported a revenue of 20.723 billion yuan, down 6.7% year-on-year, and a net profit of 5.884 billion yuan, also down 6.7% year-on-year. The overall performance met expectations [1]. - The gross margin for H2 was 57.3%, a decrease of 1.6 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin remained stable at 28.4% [2]. - The company’s net profit for 2025 is projected to be 14.4 billion yuan, representing a 19% increase year-on-year, with corresponding P/E ratios of 27x [3]. Market Trends - The health beverage segment continues to grow, with the company focusing on promoting sugar-free tea and health-oriented juice products, which have shown resilience against market declines [2]. - The company is expected to benefit from a stabilization in market competition and a recovery in market share due to its strategic product offerings [2]. Future Projections - The forecast for net profit from 2025 to 2027 is 14.4 billion yuan, 17.0 billion yuan, and 19.7 billion yuan, respectively, with growth rates of 19%, 18%, and 16% [3].