国科军工（688543）：军品稳健增长，看好弹药龙头高成长

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of RMB 69.50 [8][9]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of RMB 1.204 billion for 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 15.78%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 198.73 million, up 41.25% year-on-year [1][5]. - The company is positioned as a leading player in the consumable equipment sector, expected to benefit from the demand for missiles and ammunition due to their consumable nature [1]. - The solid engine power module for military products has shown rapid growth, with military product revenue reaching RMB 1.167 billion, a year-on-year increase of 17.34% [2][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company achieved revenue of RMB 440 million, a year-on-year increase of 21.55% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 56.15% [1]. - The gross margin for military products was 34.50%, up 2.23 percentage points year-on-year, while civilian products saw a decline in revenue by 20.79% [2]. Subsidiary Performance - The subsidiaries responsible for ammunition equipment generated a total revenue of RMB 634 million, a year-on-year increase of 12.01%, while those handling fuses and safety control modules experienced a slight decline in revenue [3]. - The subsidiary focused on solid engine power modules saw a revenue increase of 71.57% to RMB 376 million, with a profit increase of 90.15% [3]. Research and Development - The company increased its R&D expenses by 25.95% to RMB 91.166 million, focusing on core products and intelligent ammunition systems [4]. - The operating cash flow decreased by 123.87% due to delays in equipment funding approvals, but adjusted cash flow showed a 10.81% increase [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve net profits of RMB 244.53 million, RMB 301.41 million, and RMB 366.11 million for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [5][7]. - The target price is based on a projected PE ratio of 50x for 2025, reflecting the company's strong positioning in the ammunition and missile sectors [5].