NONGFU SPRING(HK:09633) Haitong Securities·2025-03-26 12:08Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" [2][11] Core Insights - The report highlights that despite challenges in the packaging water business due to recent online events, the overall performance remains stable, driven by strong growth in the tea beverage segment [5][7][8] - The company maintains its leading market share in the packaging water sector and anticipates a gradual recovery in 2025 [7][11] - The tea beverage segment has shown significant growth, with revenue increasing by 32.3% year-on-year, surpassing the packaging water segment in size [8][9] Financial Performance and Forecast - For 2023, the company reported total revenue of 42.896 billion HKD, with a slight year-on-year increase of 0.54% [7] - The net profit for 2023 was 12.123 billion HKD, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.36% [7] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 50.687 billion HKD, 58.909 billion HKD, and 67.976 billion HKD respectively, with corresponding net profits of 14.572 billion HKD, 16.953 billion HKD, and 19.834 billion HKD [6][10] - The report anticipates an EPS of 1.30 HKD for 2025, increasing to 1.76 HKD by 2027 [6][10] Market Position and Strategy - The company continues to lead the packaging water market in China, despite a decline in sales due to external factors [7] - The introduction of new products and strategic investments in high-quality water sources are expected to support future growth [7][8] - The tea beverage segment is positioned as a key growth driver, with successful product launches and strong consumer recognition [8][9] Valuation - The report suggests a PE valuation range of 30-35 times for 2025E, translating to a share price value range of 39.00-45.50 HKD [11] - The estimated fair value range, considering the exchange rate, is 41.94-48.92 HKD per share [11]