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中国石化(600028):炼化业务承压,25年有望迎来改善

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company has been upgraded to "Buy" [2][5] Core Views - The refining business is under pressure, but improvements are expected in 2025 as domestic refining capacity decreases, benefiting the company's main refining operations [1][10] - The company has adjusted its earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2025-2026 to 0.53 and 0.59 yuan respectively, with a new target price set at 7.42 yuan [2][5] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2023 is projected at 3,212,215 million yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 3.2% [4] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2023 is expected to be 60,463 million yuan, down 9.9% year-on-year [4] - The company's gross margin is forecasted to improve from 15.6% in 2023 to 17.6% by 2027 [4] - The net profit margin is expected to increase from 1.9% in 2023 to 2.6% in 2026 and 2027 [4] Industry Outlook - The industry is anticipated to experience a turning point as regulatory pressures on small-scale refineries increase, leading to a recovery in market share and pricing for major refineries like the company [10]