YADEA(01585) 交银国际·2025-03-26 12:12Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Yadea Group Holdings (1585 HK) with a target price raised to HKD 19.84, indicating a potential upside of 32.6% from the current price of HKD 14.96 [2][3][8]. Core Insights - Yadea Group is expected to benefit from the new national standards and the "trade-in" policy, which are anticipated to drive the two-wheeler industry into a new cycle. Despite a decline in revenue and net profit for 2024 due to inventory destocking and the transition between old and new standards, Yadea is positioned as an industry leader with enhanced technology, channels, and product strength [2][5]. - The company is focusing on high-end products, aiming for over 50% of its sales to come from this segment by 2025. The introduction of sodium-ion battery products is expected to enhance product competitiveness [5][10]. - Yadea's overseas sales are projected to grow significantly, with expectations of exporting 40,000 units in 2025, 80,000 in 2026, and 160,000 in 2027 [5][10]. Financial Summary - For 2024, Yadea's revenue is projected at RMB 28.236 billion, a decrease of 18.8% year-on-year, with a net profit of RMB 1.521 billion, down 51.8% [5][10]. - Revenue forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are RMB 37.865 billion, RMB 41.507 billion, and RMB 45.338 billion respectively, with net profits expected to be RMB 3.023 billion, RMB 3.518 billion, and RMB 3.967 billion [4][10]. - The gross profit margin is expected to improve to 18.6% in 2025, with a gradual increase to 19.5% by 2027 [4][10].