LZLJ(000568) 华创证券·2025-03-26 13:16Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Luzhou Laojiao (000568) with a target price of 206 CNY [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the company has reached a turning point in its fundamentals, with digitalization becoming a key operational focus. The management's strategies have proven effective in stabilizing prices and reducing inventory levels, which are now at a historically low point. The company aims for healthy growth in 2025, primarily focusing on inventory digestion in the second quarter [7]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue Forecast: - Total revenue is projected to grow from 30,233 million CNY in 2023 to 36,326 million CNY in 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 12.1% [3]. - Net Profit Forecast: - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 13,246 million CNY in 2023 to 15,860 million CNY in 2026, reflecting a CAGR of about 12.9% [3]. - Earnings Per Share (EPS): - EPS is forecasted to rise from 9.00 CNY in 2023 to 10.77 CNY in 2026 [3]. - Valuation Ratios: - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 15 in 2023 to 12 in 2026, while the price-to-book (P/B) ratio is expected to decline from 4.7 to 3.2 over the same period [3]. Operational Highlights - Digitalization: - The company has achieved a leading position in digitalization within the liquor industry, implementing digital solutions across production, packaging, management, and marketing. This includes a fully automated packaging line and a comprehensive marketing system that enhances consumer engagement and inventory management [7]. - Inventory Management: - The company has effectively reduced channel inventory to a manageable level of 2-3 months, indicating a strong focus on maintaining market order and pricing stability [7]. Market Position - Competitive Advantage: - Luzhou Laojiao's management has demonstrated flexibility and pragmatism in its strategies, which have helped maintain price stability and improve sales quality. The company is well-positioned to capitalize on potential demand recovery in the future [7].