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豫园股份(600655):聚焦优化业务结构,加力布局文化出海

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][7]. Core Insights - The company reported a significant decline in performance for 2024, with total revenue of 46.92 billion yuan, down 19.3% year-on-year, and a net profit of 125 million yuan, down 93.81% year-on-year, primarily due to weak consumer demand and a downturn in the real estate sector [7]. - The company is focusing on optimizing its product and channel structure to improve operational quality, with a notable decline in gold jewelry consumption due to rising gold prices and changing consumer preferences [7]. - The company is strategically exiting non-core assets and concentrating on high-potential industries, aiming to enhance resource allocation efficiency [7]. - The company is leveraging its cultural heritage and IP collaborations to create a consumption ecosystem centered around Eastern aesthetics, while also expanding its international presence [7]. - The profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been adjusted to 1.805 billion yuan and 2.274 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting the impact of the real estate sector and inventory management [7]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue projections for the company are as follows: 58.15 billion yuan in 2023, 46.92 billion yuan in 2024, 50.43 billion yuan in 2025, 52.96 billion yuan in 2026, and 54.77 billion yuan in 2027 [6][9]. - The net profit forecast shows a significant recovery from 125 million yuan in 2024 to 1.805 billion yuan in 2025, with further growth to 2.274 billion yuan in 2026 and 2.614 billion yuan in 2027 [6][9]. - The company's gross margin is projected to improve gradually from 13.6% in 2024 to 15.3% in 2027 [6].