STL(002648) 招商证券·2025-03-26 14:02Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" investment rating for the company [3]. Core Views - The company achieved impressive performance in 2024, with revenue of 45.648 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.03%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 6.072 billion yuan, up 26.77% year-on-year. The fourth quarter of 2024 saw revenue of 13.373 billion yuan, a 41.69% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 2.379 billion yuan, a 75.09% increase year-on-year [1][14]. - The company is positioned as a leader in the C2 and C3 chemical industry chains, continuously enhancing its integrated industrial layout and maintaining rapid growth in performance [5][8]. - The company is investing in high-end new materials projects, which are expected to contribute to long-term growth, with significant new production capacities planned for the coming years [4][11]. Financial Data and Valuation - The company’s total revenue is projected to grow from 41.487 billion yuan in 2023 to 68.652 billion yuan in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 12%, 10%, 9%, 18%, and 16% respectively [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 4.789 billion yuan in 2023 to 12.012 billion yuan in 2027, with growth rates of 56%, 27%, 21%, 30%, and 26% respectively [2]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to rise from 1.42 yuan in 2023 to 3.57 yuan in 2027, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios decreasing from 15.2 to 6.1 [2]. Business Segments - The functional chemicals segment generated revenue of 21.707 billion yuan in 2024, with a gross margin of 20.35%, while the high polymer materials segment achieved revenue of 11.987 billion yuan with a gross margin of 35.05% [18]. - The new energy materials segment saw significant growth, with revenue of 840 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 80.77%, although its gross margin decreased [18]. - The company has established a comprehensive production capacity across various segments, including 90,000 tons/year of propylene and 84,000 tons/year of acrylic acid, making it a leading player in the domestic market [9][12]. Industry Outlook - The supply of ethane is expected to remain abundant due to the shale gas revolution in the United States, which will provide a cost advantage for the company [25][40]. - The domestic ethylene production capacity is projected to expand, with a total capacity of 54.99 million tons in 2024, indicating a growing market for the company’s products [32]. - The acrylic acid and ester industry is anticipated to experience a favorable supply-demand balance due to limited new capacity additions, enhancing the market position of leading companies like the report's subject [45][49].