BYD(002594) 国元证券·2025-03-26 14:13Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for BYD, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 15% compared to the benchmark index within the next six months [3][6]. Core Views - BYD's performance in 2024 met expectations, with revenue reaching 777.10 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 29.02%, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 40.25 billion yuan, up 34.00% year-on-year [1][3]. - The company is expected to benefit from increasing market share both domestically and internationally, driven by the ongoing growth in the global penetration of new energy vehicles and the success of its intelligent driving initiatives [3][6]. Financial Performance Summary - In Q4 2024, BYD achieved revenue of 274.85 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 52.66% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 36.66%. The net profit for the same quarter was 15.02 billion yuan, up 73.12% year-on-year [1]. - The single-vehicle revenue and gross margin showed signs of recovery, with single-vehicle revenue for 2024 estimated at approximately 151,700 yuan in Q1, increasing to 147,400 yuan in Q4. The gross margin remained stable, with values around 25.7% to 19.3% across the quarters [2]. - The report forecasts net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 to be 56.29 billion yuan, 69.32 billion yuan, and 76.94 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding earnings per share of 19.35 yuan, 23.83 yuan, and 26.45 yuan [3][5]. Market Outlook - The report anticipates that BYD will continue to enhance its profitability through increased overseas sales and a higher proportion of high-end models, alongside the realization of scale effects [2][3]. - The company's fixed asset depreciation is expected to decrease, contributing to improved net profit metrics per vehicle [2].