Gemdale(SH:600383) KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2025-03-26 14:44Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has experienced a continuous contraction in revenue recognition scale, leading to a significant decline in operating income and a substantial increase in impairment losses, which have adversely affected profit performance. The cautious investment activities amid market fluctuations have prompted a downward revision of profit forecasts for 2025-2026 and the addition of a profit forecast for 2027. The expected net profits for 2025-2027 are projected to be -110 million, 93 million, and 293 million respectively, with corresponding EPS of -0.02, 0.02, and 0.06. The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 222.1 and 70.2 for 2025-2026 and 2026-2027 respectively. Despite the challenges, the company maintains a strong sales position, stable property management operations, and sufficient impairment provisions to alleviate historical burdens, with high-quality land reserves expected to exceed expectations once the market recovers [5][6][7]. Financial Performance Summary - The company reported total operating revenue of 753.44 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 23.22%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was -61.15 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 788.54%. The gross margin and net margin were 14.95% and -10.39%, reflecting declines of 2.46 percentage points and 13.65 percentage points respectively. The decline in operating revenue was primarily due to a reduction in the scale of revenue recognition from real estate projects, while the significant drop in net profit was attributed to increased impairment losses (credit impairment losses of 2.376 billion and asset impairment losses of 3.899 billion) and substantial losses from equity method investments (investment income of -2.737 billion) [6][9]. Sales and Land Reserves - The company achieved a total sales amount of 685.0 billion in 2024, ranking 14th in the industry. The new construction area in 2024 was 1.01 million square meters, while the completed area was 9.92 million square meters. As of the end of 2024, the total land reserve was approximately 29.16 million square meters, with equity land reserves of about 12.45 million square meters, of which approximately 77% is located in first- and second-tier cities, indicating a relatively sufficient land reserve focused on high-potential urban areas [7][8]. Property Management Performance - The company's property management revenue for 2024 was 7.808 billion, a year-on-year increase of 0.78%, with a gross margin of 10.11%, reflecting an increase of 2.47 percentage points. By the end of 2024, the managed area reached 252 million square meters. In the office property sector, the total area of new and renewed leases exceeded 200,000 square meters, while the performance of long-term rental apartments remained stable, with a maintained occupancy rate of 93% for mature projects [8].