CHINA RES LAND(01109) 申万宏源证券·2025-03-26 14:49Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Resources Land (01109) [2][5] Core Views - The company reported a core net profit of 256 million yuan for 2024, a decrease of 18.5% year-on-year, with regular business contributing 41% to the core net profit, which covers the dividend entirely [5] - The company has a strong financial position, remaining in the green zone of the "three red lines" policy, with a net debt ratio of only 32.4% and a cash-to-short-term debt ratio of 1.9 times [5] - The company plans to distribute a final dividend of 1.119 yuan per share, with an annual dividend of 1.319 yuan, reflecting a dividend payout ratio of 37% [5] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue for 2023 is projected at 251.137 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 21.3% [4] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024 is expected to be 25.577 billion yuan, down 18.5% year-on-year [4] - Earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is estimated at 3.59 yuan, a decrease of 18.4% compared to the previous year [4] - The company’s gross profit margin is projected to be 21.6% for 2024, down 3.5 percentage points year-on-year [5] Sales and Land Acquisition - The company’s sales for 2024 are expected to be 261.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 15% year-on-year, with a land acquisition/sales ratio of 30% [5] - The average selling price for 2024 is projected at 23,000 yuan per square meter, down 2% year-on-year [5] - The company has accelerated land acquisitions since November 2024, with an average land acquisition/sales ratio of 104% from November 2024 to February 2025 [5] Commercial Operations - The company’s shopping mall retail sales increased by 19% year-on-year, with operational income of 23.3 billion yuan, a 5% increase [5] - The occupancy rate for the company’s office buildings is 75%, with rental income of 1.88 billion yuan, down 8.7% year-on-year [5] - The hotel segment reported revenue of 2.07 billion yuan, a decrease of 10.8% year-on-year, with an occupancy rate of 64% [5] Investment Analysis - The company is positioned to benefit from its strong financial health and market leadership in urban investment and development [5] - The report suggests that the company’s high-quality land reserves and commercial operations will provide a stable performance amid industry challenges [5] - The current share price corresponds to a PE ratio of 6.6 times for 2025, indicating potential for value appreciation [5]