行 业 及 产 业 房地产 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 证券分析师 袁豪 A0230520120001 yuanhao@swsresearch.com 曹曼 A0230520120003 caoman@swsresearch.com 联系人 曹曼 (8621)23297818× caoman@swsresearch.com 2025 年 07 月 20 日 中央要求以城市更新为重要抓手， 统计局表示更大力度推动止跌回稳 看好 ——地产及物管行业周报（2025/07/12-2025/07/18） 本期投资提示： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 证 券 研 究 报 告 - ⚫ 地产行业数据：一二手房成交环比下降，新房成交推盘比下降。上周(7.12-7.18)34 个重 点城市新房合计成交 159.1 万平米，环比-20.1%；其中，一二线环比-22.9%、三四线 环比+24.8%； 7 月(7.1-7.18)一手房成交同比-18.0%，较 6 月-9.7pct；其中，一二线 同比-17.3%、三四线同比-21.9%，分别较 6 月-8.5pct ...

在西安，占据一线河景的地块，已经成为豪宅重点分布区域。 已经交付的自然界河山、源邸壹号，今年热销盘招商西安玺，在售的源邸滨湖，待亮相的河山锦绣府……都是如此。 从这块地的位置来看，最大的优势就是占据一线河景，仅凭这一点直接奠定了这块土地的价值。 而从地块本身的各项指标来看，容积率1.8，是主城区稀缺的低容地块，远远低于市场上大多数在售项目。 当然，这类容积率比较低的地块，建筑密度一般要高于常规项目（常规项目建筑密度为20%），绿地率则要小于常规项目（常规项目绿地率为35%）。 今年2月底，华润置地拿下灞河西岸82.363亩地块，成为2025年西安土地市场首宗"万元地"。 随后，该地块的项目案名定为华润玺宸上院。 如今，距离华润置地摘地6个多月，这一全新的项目迎来了规划公示，打造出了西安主城稀缺的叠拼产品！ 01 占据一线河景的叠拼来了 我们先来关注一下华润玺宸上院这块地的基本信息。 这块地是华润置地在今年2月28日以底价摘得的，地块的位置在招商西安序东侧，土地面积82.363亩（住宅80.386亩、商服1.977亩），容积率不大于1.8， 建筑密度不大于28%，绿地率不小于30%，地上计容建面98835平方米 ...

6月份华润置地继续积极补仓，在北京、西安及合肥收购了4幅地块，总楼面面积约268556平方米。集团就该等土地收购应付的权益对价约为19.8亿元。 据此计算，2025年上半年，华润置地共收购18幅地块，总楼面面积148.19万平方米，权益对价约为332亿元。与去年同期相比，2024年上半年华润置地共收 购11幅地块，新增土储储备202万平方米，权益对价约为183.3亿元，今年上半年华润置地的拿地动作更积极。 近日，华润置地（01109.HK）披露6月份及上半年销售情况。数据显示，6月份华润置地及其附属公司实现总合同销售金额约234.5亿元，同比减少26.7%；总 合同销售建筑面积约89.7万平方米，同比减少27.1%。 根据华润置地披露的1—6月销售数据，2025年上半年累计合同销售金额约1103亿元，同比减少11.6%；总合同销售建筑面积约411.9万平方米，同比减少 21%。据此前克而瑞研究中心统计的数据显示，2025年上半年，华润置地以1103亿元的销售额位居销售榜单第三名。 总体来看，虽然6月份的销售大幅下滑，但是华润置地上半年的销售整体回稳，销售降幅同比收窄。 尤为值得关注的是，6月单月销售额同比下滑 ...

Core Insights - The article highlights the performance of real estate companies in Shanghai for the first half of 2025, showcasing significant sales growth compared to the previous year [9][10]. Sales Performance - The total sales amount of the top 20 real estate companies in Shanghai reached 256.06 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of approximately 35% compared to the first half of 2024 [9]. - Twelve companies surpassed 10 billion yuan in sales, with Poly Developments, China Resources Land, and China Merchants Shekou leading the rankings, each exceeding 24 billion yuan [9][10]. - The total sales area for the top 20 companies was 2.996 million square meters, up about 10% year-on-year [9]. Company Highlights - Poly Developments topped the sales rankings due to its strong land reserves and product offerings, successfully launching several high-demand projects in key areas like Yangpu [9][10]. - China Resources Land combined area operation experience with TOD development practices, achieving significant sales in the Baoshan district [10]. - China Jinmao entered the top 15 in sales amount and ranked 8th in sales area, with its "Jin Yu Man Tang" product line gaining traction [10]. - Yuexiu Property's rapid rise is attributed to its focus on high-end improvement demands, successfully launching over 10 premium projects in core urban areas [10]. Market Trends - The Shanghai real estate market in the first half of 2025 exhibited characteristics of "volume decline and price increase" with a notable contraction in both supply and demand [11]. - The supply area of commodity residential properties decreased by 37% year-on-year, while transaction area fell by 8.4%, although the decline was less severe than the national average [11]. - The average transaction price for new homes reached 80,668 yuan per square meter, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.35% [11]. Project Performance - In June 2025, 155 openings were recorded across 103 projects, with an average absorption rate of nearly 50% [11]. - Notably, 15 projects had a subscription rate exceeding 100%, with five projects surpassing 200%, indicating strong market recognition for high-quality offerings [14]. - The top-performing project, Fei Huan Yue Fu, achieved a remarkable subscription rate of 288% [14].

一座万象汇，改变一座城。 7月17日，北京亦庄万象汇开工奠基典礼隆重举行。作为华润置地在亦庄新城打造的首个大型商业综合 体项目，这座总建筑面积达约18.8万㎡的商业旗舰，不仅是当前北京体量最大的万象汇，更标志着亦庄 商业发展迈入全新阶段，由此开启了擎动区域商业能级跃升的里程碑。 PART1 同频城市战略，赋能东部崛起 华润置地以北京亦庄万象汇为起点，持续深耕亦庄新城，为北京东部崛起贡献更多力量。这座融合商业 活力与人文关怀的城市综合体，正承载着万千期待，向着美好的未来稳步迈进。 PART2 超级万象TOD，引领城市更新 项目打造超级万象TOD开发模式，与地铁17号线北神树站无缝衔接。这种"轨道+商业+社区"的融合发展 模式，将显著改善区域交通状况和生活便利度。通过地下脉络的精密编织，将城市通勤效率、繁盛活 力、健康生态、教育资源和人居场景完美链接，推动交通枢纽向生活枢纽的质变跃迁，从根本上重 构"站、城、人"一体化的东部城市界面与发展脉络。 在北京"东部崛起"的战略版图上，超级万象TOD正如一座澎湃的能量核，加速催化区域资源聚合与价值 飞跃。北京亦庄万象汇项目是北神树区域城市功能完善的关键一环，随着建设的推进 ...

Core Viewpoint - China Resources Land experienced a significant decline in sales in June after five months of stabilization, with total contract sales amounting to approximately RMB 234.5 billion, representing a year-on-year decrease of 26.7% [1] Sales Performance - In June 2024, China Resources Land achieved total contract sales of approximately RMB 320.0 billion, a year-on-year increase of 19.0%, while the total contract sales area decreased by 8.1% [2] - For the first half of 2025, the cumulative contract sales amounted to approximately RMB 1,103.0 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 11.6%, with the total contract sales area down by 21.0% [2] - Despite the decline in June, the company managed to maintain a trend of stabilization in sales for the first half of the year, with the total sales decline narrowing by 15.1% compared to the previous year [2] Market Comparison - Among the top 100 real estate companies, the cumulative equity sales amount for the first half of the year was RMB 11,821.94 billion, a year-on-year decrease of approximately 13.23% [3] - China Resources Land ranked fifth in total sales with RMB 1,103 billion, following Poly Developments, Greentown China, and China Overseas Land [3][4] Land Acquisition - In June 2025, China Resources Land continued its aggressive land acquisition strategy, purchasing four plots of land with a total floor area of approximately 268,556 square meters for a consideration of about RMB 19.8 billion [5] - The company acquired a total of 18 plots of land in the first half of 2025, with a total floor area of 1,481,900 square meters and a total consideration of approximately RMB 332 billion [6] Revenue Generation - In June 2025, the company reported regular income of approximately RMB 41.6 billion, remaining stable year-on-year, with rental income from operational real estate increasing by 8.6% to RMB 25.9 billion [7] - For the first half of 2025, cumulative regular income reached approximately RMB 246.0 billion, a year-on-year increase of 8.0%, with rental income from operational real estate growing by 12.1% to RMB 158.7 billion [7]

【3】华润置地6月合同销售额234.5亿元 7月15日，华润置地披露6月未经审核经营简报。简报显示，6月华润置地及其附属公司实现总合同销售 金额约234.5亿元，总合同销售建筑面积约89.7万平方米，分别同比减少26.7%及27.1%。 【4】龙湖集团6月合同销售额46.4亿元 【1】北京：进一步扩大提取住房公积金直付房租业务试点范围 7月15日，北京住房公积金管理中心发布《关于进一步扩大提取住房公积金直付房租业务试点范围的通 知》（以下简称《通知》），在前期试点基础上优化提取措施、扩大试点范围，以更精准的政策举措扩 大住房公积金保障覆盖面，更好满足缴存人租赁住房消费需求。 《通知》提出，试点住房出租机构由3家增加至4家（新增北京自如住房租赁有限公司）。其中，2家商 品房租赁住房合作单位的试点范围扩大至全市；公共租赁住房试点项目增加至3个。试点扩面面向全市 住房出租机构开放，凡有意愿参与试点工作的住房出租机构，均可与北京公积金中心沟通对接，待符合 系统对接标准和业务规范要求后，可开展试点工作。 【2】国家统计局：6月一线城市新房价格同比降幅较上月收窄0.3个百分点 7月15日，国家统计局发布2025年6月份7 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the goal of building innovative, livable, beautiful, resilient, civilized, and smart modern cities, focusing on high-quality urban development and urban renewal as a key strategy [1][2] - The recent Central Urban Work Conference highlighted the shift in urban development from expansion to quality improvement, prioritizing the satisfaction and value judgments of the people [2][3] - The new urbanization strategy focuses on people-centered approaches, regional coordination, and urban renewal as essential components for high-quality urbanization [3] Group 2 - Urban renewal is defined as a systematic process of spatial reconstruction and functional upgrading, transitioning from expansion to enhancement of existing urban areas [4][5] - The policy goals of urban renewal have evolved from addressing basic livelihood issues to constructing livable, resilient, and smart cities, emphasizing sustainable and multi-layered urban renewal mechanisms [4][5] - The recent guidelines for urban renewal stress optimizing urban structure, enhancing functionality, and preserving historical cultural heritage while promoting digital, green, and intelligent urban governance [4][5] Group 3 - The investment landscape for urban renewal includes various sectors such as urban planning, transportation, landscape architecture, and smart city initiatives, indicating a comprehensive approach to urban development [6] - Companies involved in urban planning and related sectors are highlighted, showcasing a diverse range of players in the market, including those specializing in design, construction, and infrastructure [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate sector, anticipating stronger policies to stabilize the market [3][4][36]. Core Insights - The investment and sales in the real estate sector are both weakening, with expectations for more robust policies to halt the decline and stabilize the market [3][4]. - The report highlights that the investment in real estate from January to June 2025 has decreased by 11.2% year-on-year, with new starts down by 20.0% and completions down by 14.8% [4][19]. - Sales volume and prices are both declining, with sales area down by 3.5% and sales amount down by 5.5% in the same period [20][35]. - Funding sources are tightening, with a 6.2% year-on-year decline in total funding sources for real estate development [36][38]. Investment Analysis Investment Side - Real estate development investment totaled 466.58 billion yuan from January to June 2025, down 11.2% year-on-year, with June alone seeing a 12.9% decline [4][19]. - New starts and completions are also down significantly, with new starts down 20.0% and completions down 14.8% year-on-year [19][20]. Sales Side - The total sales area for real estate was 460 million square meters, a decrease of 3.5% year-on-year, with June seeing a 5.5% decline [20][35]. - The average selling price of properties decreased by 1.9% year-on-year, with June's average price at 9,649 yuan per square meter, down 5.6% year-on-year [34][35]. Funding Side - Total funding sources for real estate development amounted to 500.2 billion yuan, down 6.2% year-on-year, with domestic loans showing a positive growth of 0.6% [36][38]. - Sales returns are weakening, with deposits and prepayments down by 16.7% year-on-year in June [36][38].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report indicates that the real estate market is moving towards stabilization, with new housing prices showing a decrease in month-on-month (MoM) but a smaller year-on-year (YoY) decline. The second-hand housing prices are experiencing a similar trend, with a YoY decline narrowing while the MoM decline is expanding [8][19][26]. Summary by Sections New Housing Market - In June 2025, new housing prices in first, second, and third-tier cities decreased by -0.3%, -0.2%, and -0.3% respectively, with a total of 70 cities showing a MoM decline of -0.3%, which is a 0.1 percentage point increase in decline compared to May [14][15]. - The YoY decline for new housing prices in first, second, and third-tier cities was -1.4%, -3.0%, and -4.6% respectively, leading to an overall YoY decline of 3.7% for 70 cities, which is a reduction of 0.4 percentage points compared to the previous month [14][15]. Second-Hand Housing Market - The second-hand housing prices in June 2025 saw a MoM decline of -0.6%, with first, second, and third-tier cities experiencing declines of -0.7%, -0.6%, and -0.6% respectively. This represents an increase in the decline of 0.1 percentage points compared to May [19][21]. - The YoY decline for second-hand housing prices across 70 cities was -6.1%, with first, second, and third-tier cities showing declines of -3.0%, -5.8%, and -6.7% respectively, indicating a narrowing of the decline for some tiers [19][22]. Regional Performance - In June 2025, Shanghai led the new housing market with a MoM increase of +0.4% and a YoY increase of +6.0%. Among the 35 key cities, only Shanghai, Hangzhou, and Taiyuan saw YoY increases in new housing prices [26][27]. - The second-hand housing prices in June across 35 cities showed a decline, with only Xining experiencing a MoM increase of +0.1%. The overall trend indicates a consistent decline in second-hand housing prices since early 2024 [26][27]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on strong credit real estate companies that are well-positioned to meet the needs of improvement-oriented customers, such as Greentown China, China Merchants Shekou, and China Overseas Development [8][26]. - It also recommends companies benefiting from both residential and commercial real estate recovery, such as China Resources Land and Longfor Group, as well as high-quality property management firms under the "Good House, Good Service" policy [8][26].