MEITUAN(03690) 国信证券·2025-03-27 04:12Investment Rating - The investment rating for Meituan-W (03690.HK) is "Outperform the Market" [6][19]. Core Views - The core business of Meituan is experiencing robust growth, with overseas expansion accelerating to support medium-term growth [1][5]. - In Q4 2024, the company reported an adjusted net profit of 9.85 billion yuan, which is in line with expectations, while revenue reached 88.49 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 20.1% [1][9]. - The adjusted net profit for the full year 2024 is projected to be 43.77 billion yuan, representing an 88.2% increase year-on-year, driven by improved efficiency in core operations and reduced losses in new businesses [1][9]. Summary by Sections Core Local Business - In Q4 2024, the core local business generated revenue of 65.57 billion yuan, up 18.9%, with operating profit reaching 12.90 billion yuan, a 60.9% increase [2][11]. - The operating profit margin improved to 19.7%, up 5.2 percentage points year-on-year, exceeding Bloomberg's expectations [2][11]. - The delivery service and commission revenue grew by 19.5% and 23.9% respectively, while online marketing services saw a 17.7% increase [2][11]. New Business - New business revenue in Q4 2024 was 22.92 billion yuan, a 23.5% increase, with significant growth in commission and online marketing [3][16]. - The operating loss for new businesses narrowed significantly to 2.18 billion yuan, down from 4.83 billion yuan in Q4 2023, indicating improved efficiency [3][16]. - The Meituan Youxuan segment showed notable improvement in loss reduction, while Keeta remains a primary source of increased losses due to its early-stage investment phase [3][16]. Technology and Efficiency - The company is actively integrating AI technologies to enhance employee efficiency and service upgrades, with a focus on self-developed models [4][18]. - The "Shen Huai Yuan" program has expanded to cover multiple categories, increasing cross-selling opportunities and consumer engagement [4][18]. - The gradual implementation of social security for delivery personnel is expected to increase costs but may also enhance operational efficiency in the long run [4][18]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue for 2024 is projected at 337.59 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 22.0%, and adjusted net profit is expected to reach 43.77 billion yuan [8][20]. - The adjusted net profit forecast for 2025 has been slightly reduced to 51.52 billion yuan, while the 2026 forecast has been raised to 65.31 billion yuan [5][19]. - The company is expected to maintain a strong growth trajectory, supported by ongoing improvements in online penetration and expansion into new markets [5][19].