SHENHUO COAL&POWER(SZ:000933) Guoxin Securities·2025-03-27 02:12Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [3][5][36] Core Views - The company's net profit is expected to decline by 27% in 2024, with revenue projected at 38.37 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2% [6][28] - The decline in profitability is primarily due to a drop in both volume and price in the coal sector, alongside rising costs [6][7] - The aluminum smelting segment is expected to see stable profits, with a projected gross profit of 4,014 yuan per ton in 2024 [7][28] - The company is positioned to benefit from structural reforms in the supply side of both the aluminum and coal industries, which are currently in a favorable cycle [3][28] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company is expected to achieve a revenue of 38.37 billion yuan, with a net profit of 4.31 billion yuan, and a cash flow from operating activities of 7.72 billion yuan [6][34] - The coal production is projected to be 6.74 million tons, a decrease of 430,000 tons year-on-year, leading to increased costs [6][28] - The average coal selling price is expected to drop by 74 yuan per ton, resulting in a significant reduction in gross profit from the coal segment [6][28] Aluminum Segment - The aluminum segment is expected to maintain stable profitability, with costs at 12,000 yuan per ton and a gross profit of 4,014 yuan per ton [7][28] - The Xinjiang Shenhui subsidiary remains the most profitable, with a projected net profit of 2.06 billion yuan from the sale of 810,000 tons of aluminum in 2024 [28] Future Projections - For 2025-2027, revenue is projected to grow to 40.56 billion yuan, with net profits increasing to 5.54 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 28.7% [3][34] - The diluted EPS is expected to be 2.46 yuan in 2025, with corresponding P/E ratios of 7.6, 7.5, and 7.4 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [3][34]