COSCO SHIPPING Energy(SH:600026) HTSC·2025-03-27 06:25Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [8][9] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 23.24 billion RMB for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 2.3%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.04 billion RMB, up 19.4% year-on-year, aligning with performance forecasts [1] - The international oil transportation market is expected to experience fluctuations in 2024, with a decline in freight rates in the second half due to weak global macro demand and ongoing OPEC+ production cuts [1] - The company announced a year-end dividend of 0.21 RMB per share, corresponding to an annual payout ratio of 50.8% [1] - For 2025, the company anticipates a recovery in domestic demand and an increase in oil production by OPEC+, leading to a projected growth in international crude and refined oil freight rates, which will boost profitability [1] - The company has expanded its business scope by acquiring LPG and chemical shipping operations, enhancing its energy logistics capabilities [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company achieved a foreign trade transportation turnover growth of 14.4% in 2024, but gross profit decreased by 13.5% to 3.59 billion RMB [2] - The gross profit from crude oil transportation fell significantly by 29.6% due to weak global demand and OPEC+ production cuts, while the average freight rates for crude oil and refined oil showed mixed results [2] - Domestic oil transportation turnover grew by 4.2% in 2024, with a slight decline in gross profit [3] Market Outlook - The oil transportation market is expected to improve in 2025 due to OPEC+ production increases and tightening supply from sanctioned vessels, leading to a favorable supply-demand structure [4] - The projected nominal supply growth for global crude oil tankers is 0.2% in 2024, 0.8% in 2025, and 2.7% in 2026, while demand is expected to decline in 2024 and grow modestly in subsequent years [4] Valuation and Price Target - The company maintains net profit forecasts of 5.38 billion RMB for 2025 and 6.11 billion RMB for 2026, with a new forecast of 6.47 billion RMB for 2027 [5] - The target prices are set at 9.20 HKD for H shares and 16.00 RMB for A shares, based on historical price-to-book ratios [5]