CHALCO(601600) 国盛证券·2025-03-27 06:24Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [7] Core Views - The company achieved a record high net profit since its establishment in 2024, with a revenue of 237.07 billion yuan, up 5.2% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 12.4 billion yuan, up 85.4% year-on-year [1][5] - The company maintains its leading position in the aluminum industry, with strong production growth and operational efficiency [2][3][4] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a net cash flow from operations that increased by 21.37% year-on-year, and the return on equity improved by 7.33 percentage points [1] - The company's revenue for Q4 2024 reached 63.29 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 71.4%, with a net profit of 3.38 billion yuan, up 153.1% year-on-year [1][2] Production and Pricing - The company produced 16.87 million tons of alumina in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 1.2%, and 7.61 million tons of electrolytic aluminum, up 12.1% year-on-year [2][3] - The average price of alumina in 2024 was 4,071 yuan per ton, up 39% year-on-year, while the average price of electrolytic aluminum was 19,900 yuan per ton, up 7% year-on-year [2] Capacity Expansion - The company is advancing its capacity expansion projects, with new alumina and electrolytic aluminum projects expected to come online in 2024 and 2025, further solidifying its market position [4][5] - The total alumina capacity is projected to increase to 24.26 million tons, while electrolytic aluminum capacity will reach 7.73 million tons upon completion of ongoing projects [4] Future Profitability Estimates - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 11.8 billion yuan, 14 billion yuan, and 16.4 billion yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, with corresponding P/E ratios of 11.1, 9.4, and 8.1 [5][6]