CSN(600029) 华泰证券·2025-03-27 06:30Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [7][8] Core Views - The company is expected to enter a profit cycle soon, with a projected revenue of RMB 174.22 billion in 2024, an increase of 8.9% year-on-year, and a narrowed net loss of RMB 1.696 billion, down 59.7% from a loss of RMB 4.209 billion in 2023 [1][4] - The airline industry is anticipated to see supply growth remain low, leading to improved supply-demand dynamics and enhanced revenue levels for airlines [1][4] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - In 2024, the company achieved a passenger load factor of 84.4%, up 6.3 percentage points year-on-year, while unit revenue per passenger kilometer decreased by 12.7% to RMB 0.48 [2] - The company’s cargo revenue reached RMB 18.695 billion in 2024, a 22.4% increase, driven by high growth in cross-border e-commerce [2] Cost and Margin Analysis - The company improved its aircraft utilization rate to 9.62 hours, leading to a 4.5% reduction in unit costs, resulting in a gross profit margin increase of 0.7 percentage points to 8.4% [3] - The total operating cost for 2024 was RMB 159.571 billion, an increase of 8.1% year-on-year, while gross profit improved by 18.7% to RMB 14.653 billion [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The net profit forecast for 2025 has been raised by 6% to RMB 4.027 billion, with expected net profits of RMB 7.894 billion in 2026 and RMB 9.501 billion in 2027 [4][6] - The target price for the A-share is set at RMB 7.50 and for the H-share at HKD 5.10, reflecting an upward adjustment in valuation multiples [4][8]